In 1987, when the world’s population reached 5 billion, almost everyone was suddenly taken aback: there are so many humans! 12 years passed in the blink of an eye. In 1999, a 3.6-kilogram baby boy was born in a hospital in Sarajevo, capital of Bosnia and Herzegovina. At that time, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan held him in arms and excitedly declared to the world: "The world's 6 billionth person is born!" Another 12 years later, the news came that by the end of October 2011, the world population will exceed 7 billion. Mark. Who will become the 7th billion inhabitants on Earth? According to projections made by the United Nations Population Division, the baby will fall to the ground on October 31. The location is most likely to be in the Asian cities. The birth of him (her) will leave an extremely important history in the history of global population changes.
Seven billion, such a huge number is enough to make the world "abandoned." Is there a crisis of population explosion behind it? What kind of mentality should we adopt to welcome this "new era" of the world's population?
7 billion! Well-being? Woe?
Resources, hard to guess heart
According to a new study by Harvard University professor David Bloom, the global population will reach 7 billion this year and grow to 9 billion by 2050.
90 billion! What kind of scenario would it be? We cannot help but begin to imagine: Walking on both sides of the street, you must raise your hand to make the radius of your body as narrow as you can while sideways. This action seems to be a surrender, but it is the only gesture to "kill" the siege in an intensive human head.
Another more vivid statement is that by 2050, one person will stand on every square meter of land. To maintain the survival of the global population of 9 billion, the earth will “consume†the equivalent of “heat†twice today.
We can't help but ask what kind of population can we support? Perhaps the same concerns have occurred in the course of human development. However, the rapid development of agriculture and science has led people to believe that with a larger population, the earth can feed itself.
If you are interested in reading newspapers or books before the 1960s, you will find it hard to see the word "environmental protection." Indeed, recall the long-sought slogans of “declaring war on nature†and “conquering natureâ€â€”humans do not seem to intend to live in harmony with nature.
Until 1962, the American marine biologist Rachel Carson first questioned the correctness of this basic consciousness of human beings. Her book Silent Spring sparked public awareness of environmental issues. So we found that as the burden on the earth increases, fewer and fewer people can leave it to the next generation.
The US Citizen Times linked the world’s population growth with a series of “global stress indicatorsâ€: human activities and pollution led to the frequent occurrence of extreme weather; when the land could not feed the farmers, they flooded into cities, causing a series of social problems. . In the past two years, population growth has caused food prices to soar. This year's political turmoil in the Middle East countries is also related to this.
In 1900, the world consumed only a few thousand barrels of oil per day. Today, the average daily oil consumption reaches 72 million barrels. With the development of human civilization, people's demand for natural resources is increasing. Scientists have long warned that many non-renewable resources will be exhausted after decades.
In the 1980s, there were some relatively optimistic voices. The American scholar Julian Simon believes in the book "Last Resources" that the "resources that can be discovered" and "resources that exist in the earth's crust" far exceed the "known reserves." According to this, humans can face the future with a smile.
In this regard, Professor Zhou Liping, deputy director of the Institute of Population and Development of Zhejiang University, expressed his views. She believes that the key to the use of natural resources lies in the estimation of "unknown reserves," which is precisely where it is difficult to ascertain. The crux of the problem may not be depletion, but because of the limited land area and arable land on Earth. At present, the use of natural resources is indeed facing a crisis of shortage.
“The absolute number of the world's population is not a problem. The key is whether population growth can be adapted to social development and whether it can match the carrying capacity of the population. Therefore, relevant regulation and control measures should also be based on national, national and regional differences. "Differentiate." Professor Zhou Liping said, "In the context of globalization, internationalization, and informationization, we need to work together to address the challenges brought about by climate change, environmental pollution, and population migration."
It can be said that the ecological environment is a chemical equation that is extremely difficult to balance. Changes in any one of the factors can cause disruptions in the entire system.
If the ecosystem collapses completely, will human civilization die out? The answer is yes. Faced with this sky of civilized pollution on the top of the head, humans should stop and think carefully about the future. After all, we only have one earth.
Population, difficult to reduce fat
There are also some analyses that the essence of the world population problem lies in the uneven development. According to the National Geographic magazine, even if the population reaches 9 billion in schedule by 2050, the average population density will only slightly exceed that of France today. "France has never been called 'purgatory', so the earth will not be."
Let’s take a look at the general profile of the world's demographics for the coming decades: Improved vaccine efficiency, use of antibiotics, and improved public health conditions have increased the life expectancy of the developing world's population. Bloom expects 97% of the next growth population to come from Nearly half of developing countries are in Africa.
According to a recent report of the World Population Fund of Germany, by the middle of this century, the population of the world’s 50 most underdeveloped countries is expected to increase from 800 million to 1.7 billion, and these countries will suffer from shortages of food, water, housing, and energy. , carrying a heavier economic burden on the back.
Statistics show that each woman in Nigeria has an average of 8 children, 7 in Uganda and 3 in India. By 2028, India will replace China and become the world’s most populous nation. How to curb the population growth rate in these countries, people still do nothing.
In India, most government officials still believe that population growth can bring sufficient labor force, but some media have begun to pay attention to new terms that may become potential risks: “youth expansionâ€.
In the event of stagnant economic development, the result of "cooperation" with "youth expansion" and lack of education and job opportunities will surely be social unrest. In this regard, history also provides a disturbing evidence. Anthropologists say that one of the reasons for the expansion of the medieval European empire was the result of male “youth expansionâ€.
The well-known Indian magazine Tahelka pointed out that although India’s labor resources are abundant, the entire country’s economy presents a situation of high savings, high investment, and high growth, but “when we enjoy such a 'demographic dividend', we must not Forgetting may expose future generations to 'liabilities'.†The article concludes by saying that “the difference between China and India is that China can quickly make policy adjustments and control its own population issues.â€
Indeed, in the past 30 years or so, China has achieved remarkable achievements in population control. Thanks to the success of China's family planning policy, the time for the world population to reach 6 billion has been "postponed for at least 4 years." This means that the earth has consumed 111 billion kilograms less food, and the degree of deterioration in human settlements and ecological environment has been reduced by more than 20%.
However, the population problem in our country still cannot be ignored. The 2010 latest census data communique shows that according to the net increase rate of 10 million people per year, by the early 2030s, China’s total population will be 1.5 billion people, and it will reach its peak.
According to Professor Li-Ping Zhou, Mexico City's "slimming record" may become a slimming sample of large and medium-sized cities whose domestic postures are increasingly "bloated".
As one of the largest cities in the world, Mexico City has suffered from the malignant expansion of the population. However, in recent years, this metropolis with a population of more than 20 million has adopted measures such as the construction of a satellite city, the equalization of urban and rural areas, and the promotion of family planning. The population has begun to show a declining trend, and the situation of overcrowding in cities has gradually eased.
In order to prevent the emergence of the phenomenon of “rather wanting a bed in the urban area and not building a room in the satellite cityâ€, the Mexican city government has adopted a series of effective adjustment measures. In addition to taking measures to ensure people’s livelihood issues such as transportation, housing, and food supply. The government also deliberately built some famous high schools and universities into the satellite city to attract people to live.
Old age, big tail can not afford
Interestingly, the developing countries are very crowded and Western countries are doing everything possible to encourage birth. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev made a high-profile announcement last year that Russia "has finally reversed the trend of continuous decline in population in the last 20 years." He also met with "Glorious Mother" many times and issued a signal to continue vigorously encouraging childbirth.
Although it is important to control the number of people, people are gradually realizing that the ultimate goal is to improve the standard of living of human beings and improve the way humans consume natural resources. With respect to fertility, more and more scholars at home and abroad have put forward the idea that in a country with a perfect social security system, childbearing is a social responsibility and not just an individual behavior.
Looking ahead, in Germany, 43% of women aged 30 to 34 have no offspring. It is estimated that by 2050, the number of newborn babies in Germany may be only half of what they are now. The German media exclaimed: "In the next 12 generations, Germania must become a rare nation!"
A South Korea’s “Urgent Proposal to Overcome Low Fertility†report also warned that if South Korea’s ultra-low fertility rate persists, South Korea’s economy may suffer negative growth due to lack of labor and will lose in global competition since 2029.
According to relevant data, 60 years ago, the average number of working-age people in the world aged 12 years and older, who are over 65 years of age, is now 7 people. By 2050, it will probably be reduced to only 3 people. In Japan, the ratio of the working population to pensioners in 2010 was 3:1, making it the lowest level in the world.
It seems that these countries must expand their productivity and must absorb large numbers of immigrants. A recent United Nations report on immigration and development reflects this: With 100 people retire in the first world, 342 people in developing countries will enter the labor market.
However, can this really solve all the problems? Anders Powell, a professor of communication at Stockholm University in Sweden, believes that the “old age expansion†in Europe is due to the fact that Europe’s economic development is weak and that citizen welfare cannot be fully protected as before. The problem in developing countries is not just “youth expansionâ€. It is so simple that the problems of education and employment of young people are not properly handled.
Powell specifically mentioned that while controlling China’s population and maintaining economic growth, China has given many new people better education. China’s post-80s and post-90s are becoming new forces for China’s development. This is a more active attempt. .
Perhaps we can say that the key to supporting 9 billion people depends on who led the consumption and what it consumed. There is no doubt that the world’s energy and resource consumption rights are in the hands of wealthy people. The average American’s consumption is 6,000 times that of Nepal’s residents. According to Brian O'Neill, an expert from the National Center for Atmospheric Research in the United States, sub-Saharan Africa has the fastest population growth, but per capita emissions are only a few percent of Americans.
As a low-income third-world citizen, I think this view is very real. When the poor people in the poor countries are waiting for food, the developed countries are tirelessly promoting their healthy recipes and organic foods – these are too extravagant for most new people.
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