Analysis of the economic operation of the abrasives industry in 2015 (full text)

In 2015, in the abrasive industry, the world economy was weak, the domestic economic structure was adjusted, and the downstream demand was sluggish. The industry colleagues overcame the difficulties, actively adjusted the structure, and achieved good results in product upgrades, but as the basic materials and tools for industrial development. Due to the impact of the overall economic situation, the overall economic operation is in a downward trend.
I. Operational characteristics of the abrasives industry in 2015 1. The output of major products declined. Our products are mainly used in grinding and refractory materials. In 2015, the economy of major downstream industries experienced different degrees of decline. Crude steel output decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, cement decreased by 4.9%, flat glass decreased by 8.6%, and ten non-ferrous metals increased by 5.8. %, the growth rate decreased by 1.4 percentage points, the growth rate of real estate slowed down, the economic operation of downstream industries declined to varying degrees, and the demand for abrasives decreased accordingly.
According to statistics, in 2015, the production and sales volume of brown corundum was about 1.5 million tons, down 3.2% year-on-year; white corundum was about 220,000 tons, down 12% year-on-year; black silicon carbide was about 640 million tons, down 1.54% year-on-year; green silicon carbide was 240,000 tons. Left and right, down 4% year-on-year; resin abrasives around 460,000 tons, down 8% year-on-year; ceramic abrasives around 250,000 tons, down 16.67% year-on-year.
2. The sales revenue of each product decreased year-on-year (Table 1)
According to the statistics of the club, the sales revenue of products in the first quarter of 2015 decreased by 5.29% year-on-year. The cost of sales and sales expenses decreased by 3.8% and 4.56% respectively, which was lower than the decline in sales revenue.
3. Product sales prices continued to fall. At the beginning of 2015, the brown corundum block factory price tax price 3100-3200 yuan / ton, section sand 1-3mm 4050-4150 yuan / ton, grain sand 4300-4400 yuan / ton, gradually reduced to the block factory tax price 3000-3050 yuan / ton , Section sand 3400-3500 yuan / ton, grain sand 4100-4200 yuan / ton, unfinished unpaid tax price is to block 2600 yuan / ton, section sand 3100-3200 yuan / ton, grain sand 4,000 yuan / ton.
White corundum due to the lower price of aluminum oxide powder, once as low as 1,650 yuan / ton (November), the price of white corundum products also fell all the way, the end of the factory billing price block 3100 yuan / ton, section sand 3,500 yuan / ton, reported 4000 The price of -4100 yuan / ton is relatively good, the grain size sand is 4400-4500 yuan / ton, the low energy can reach 4000-4200 yuan / ton (there are also small production enterprises that do not invoice the external sales price is lower).
Black silicon carbide 88#0-10mm decreased from 4550-4650 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 3900-4000 yuan/ton at the end of the year, and the ex-factory price of 98#F16-100 decreased from 6450-6650 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 5900 at the end of the year- 6100 yuan / ton, 98.5 # green silicon carbide block ex-factory price fell from 6800-7000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 6300-6500 yuan / ton, JIS1500 fell from 17500-18000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 16,300-16800 yuan / ton,
The quality of abrasive products varies greatly from price to product, but the small slice of φ105 sold by ordinary abrasive tools is as low as 0.40-0.50 yuan/piece. Other enterprises adopt the method of sales promotion. In order to open the market, many enterprises adopt lowering the factory. The price is sold externally. Statistics show that the current sales value of sales has dropped by 23.85%.
4. Financial expenses continued to rise . Due to the serious losses in the steel industry, the slow recovery of refractory enterprises directly affected the recovery of goods from abrasive suppliers. Most enterprises still rely on bank loans or even usury to maintain production. The financial expenses shown in the report increased by 6.97. %, of which interest expenses increased by 6.70%, and net accounts receivable increased by 3.55%.
5. The investment amount is increased and the structure is optimized. In 2015, the industry's statistical investment increased by 9.04%. According to the statistics of the classified statistics, the increase of abrasive tools enterprises is relatively large, at 35.98%. From the research situation, the scale abrasives enterprises are expanding the scale of production and upgrading the production equipment. The investment in research and development funds has increased, the level of equipment automation has been further improved, and the amount of high-end products is increasing.
6. The economic benefits have declined . The above five items are the main reasons for the decline in total profit. The statistical report shows that the total profit of 112 large-scale enterprises in 2015 decreased by 6.75% year-on-year, and the profit of abrasive enterprises increased by 42%, and 58% decreased. % rises and 55% declines. The commonality is that the decline is greater than the increase.
7. Negative growth in import and export trade, export trade due to weak foreign demand, appreciation of the renminbi in August, currency depreciation in some countries in Russia and Southeast Asia, and the decline in the export volume and export value of major products (Table 2).
The export volume of brown corundum was 516,600 tons, the amount was 358,940 thousand US dollars, down 16.33% and 15.34% respectively; the natural corundum was 57,900 tons, the amount was 12,056 thousand US dollars, down 2.73% and 1.45% respectively, and other artificial corundum was 161,900 tons. 149,870 thousand US dollars, down 16.54% and 13.46% respectively; silicon carbide 314,800 tons, amounting to 305,388,000 US dollars, down 1.56% and 11.28% respectively; boron carbide 2,288 tons, 32,080 thousand US dollars, down 5.49% and 3.32% respectively , the abrasives of 214,400 tons, the amount of 578,532 thousand US dollars, down 3.41% and 2.26% respectively, the average price of silicon carbide decreased by 12.61%, the average price of other products have increased to varying degrees.
The brown pheasant increased by 3.01% year-on-year, the amount decreased by 13.1%, the average price decreased by 15.65%, and the natural corundum decreased by 1.10%. The amount decreased by 25.29%, the average price decreased by 24.36%; the other artificial corundum decreased by 73.39%, the amount decreased by 51.15%, the average price increased by 83.20%; the silicon carbide decreased by 28.99%, the amount increased by 2.40%, and the average price increased year-on-year. 44.30%; the annual amount of boron carbide decreased by 90.35%, the amount decreased by 72.38%, the average price increased by 185.78%, the annual increase of abrasive tools by 1.06%, the amount decreased by 28.24%, and the average price decreased by 28.99%. Imports declined and average prices rose, indicating an increase in the level of imported products.
Second, the outstanding problems in the development of the industry In 2015, under the situation of the continuous decline of the international and domestic economy, the problems in the development of the abrasives industry in the years of development have further highlighted, the market competition is more intense, corporate funds are difficult, and development is difficult.
1. Overcapacity is still an important factor affecting the benign development of the industry. The main products of the industry, especially brown and white corundum, are excessively heavy. The production capacity of brown corundum is 4.3 million tons, and the actual production and sales volume is about 1.5 million tons, accounting for about 30% of the production capacity. In recent years, although some enterprises have stopped production and changed production, many enterprises have upgraded their equipment during the transformation, and some new production capacity (Yangquan three 10,000 furnaces put into operation), so the overall production capacity has not decreased. Although the Spring Festival holiday in February, due to factors such as the environmental protection of Zhengzhou and other cities and the holding of the Shanghe Association in Zhengzhou, brown and white corundum smelting and processing enterprises have stopped production and rectification. In Guizhou and other places, due to high smelting and transportation costs, many enterprises have stopped production. According to the survey of several brown fused alumina producing areas in Henan, Guizhou and Shanxi, the operating rate is only 30-35% in the whole year. However, due to the different electricity prices in different places, the power plant shares in the corundum production enterprises, which makes the operating rate in areas with low electricity prices relatively high. The production capacity is hard to reduce.
The production capacity of white corundum is 1.45 million tons, the annual production and sales volume is about 220,000 tons, and the production capacity is 30%. Due to the continuous downward adjustment of the price of aluminum oxide powder, some small enterprises are on the rise, increasing production, and the output has not been able to fall. Pushing to the market has intensified the fierce competition. The market sales price has dropped and then dropped. Some enterprises have to stop production or stop production. Now there are enterprises in the Shangbai Corundum factory, which will definitely increase the production capacity of white corundum products and exacerbate the viciousness. competition. The new companies lack the research on the market. They always feel that I have the advantage of electricity price or raw materials. In an attempt to increase market share by increasing production capacity, it is actually very difficult to do. Market competition depends on market demand, and it is not possible to expect me to produce as much as I want, and how much the market will accept. The product has no technical and quality advantages, and the market is not easily accepted only by the large amount.
The price of silicon carbide products is also constantly decreasing. It is also due to the huge production capacity, the market demand is sluggish, and the price is always up. The capacity of black silicon carbide is 1 million tons, and the actual production and sales volume is 640,000 tons, accounting for 64%. The production capacity of green silicon carbide is 1.3 million tons, and the actual production and sales volume is 240,000 tons, accounting for 18.5%.
Low-priced and inferior cutting blades still have a considerable share in the market. Some products without production licenses still exist in large quantities. The only way to enter the market is to fight prices.
The situation of these disorderly competitions is, in the final analysis, a serious overcapacity that causes low-price competition to seriously compress the profit margin of enterprises.
2. Insufficient research and development of enterprises, few innovative products, and weak market competition. Under the current fierce competition, some of our corporate leaders feel the crisis, increase investment in enterprise transformation and upgrading, and put energy into product development. However, the strength of R&D is not enough, mainly because of weak R&D strength and lack of talents. Some enterprises only have two or three R&D personnel, but there are too few professional and technical personnel with theory, practice and R&D ability, and many key problems encountered in manufacturing. Technology cannot be solved. The products are strengthened on the basis of the original, and there are few new products developed. Some business owners bluntly say that the competition is too fierce and very helpless, but there is no breakthrough point, only on a relatively low level, unable to get out of the predicament. Some time ago, I went to some abrasives companies to investigate. Two companies have only entered our industry in recent years, but the business owners have chosen the right location for the entry, choose a high starting point, and work hard in the high-end products field. Abandoning the competition in the low-end product field, they also set up a technology R&D team based on industry-renowned technicians, choose cooperation with foreign companies, accept their technical guidance, improve products according to foreign market demand, and sell domestic and foreign markets. They are all good. They also cooperate with equipment and accessories companies to jointly develop and break through the difficulties in production and greatly improve product performance. Although the carbon-boron products are not as large as other abrasives, they have been developing new products and expanding their use in these years.
3. The market competition order is not standardized, and unfair competition affects the sound development of the market. Everyone has been expecting an orderly and fair competitive market environment. The difficulty of sales caused by overcapacity has also caused enterprises to suffer. For the benefit of enterprises, low-cost dumping, infringement of well-known trademarks, and frequent such cases have occurred frequently. Some enterprises have to set up anti-counterfeiting offices. Some companies use no invoicing, tax evasion and tax evasion. The price mentioned above has been said. At the time, it had a great impact on normal sales. Recently, Premier Li Keqiang pointed out in the investigation of the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation that it is necessary to further improve the system, strengthen guidance, prevent local protection, market segmentation, etc., and severely crack down on illegal taxation and fraud. This requirement will be gradually implemented. Other enterprises do not hesitate to violate the law, do not go to environmental protection facilities, or go to environmental protection equipment only to cope with inspections, usually do not open, waste water exhaust smuggling, so as to reduce costs, impact the market at low prices, disrupting market order.
III. Development Situation of Abrasives Industry in 2016 Looking forward to the international economic situation in 2016, the US economic recovery is slow, the European economy is uncertain, and the Asian economy is not clear enough. From the perspective of our industry exports in 2015, exports to the United States and Europe. The export volume of major products in the Asian region has generally declined. The orders for abrasives in the first three months of 2016 have increased. This is in line with the law of distribution at the beginning of the year, but the economic situation from several major export destinations has not seen significant changes. Export trade is not optimistic.
The domestic “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” has set a grand blueprint for the Chinese economy in the next five years. The two sessions will adjust the GDP growth rate to 6.5-7%. The economy will still maintain medium and high-speed growth, but the production capacity will be excessively high and the products will be repeated at low levels. Production, low-priced vicious competition is still an important factor that constrains economic development. Domestic economic development will remain a difficult period in 2016, and industry development will also be a difficult period. We must have sufficient mental preparation.
This year is the first year of the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan”. The Central Economic Work Conference has clarified the economic policy tone of “steady progress and progress”, emphasizing “de-capacity, destocking, deleveraging, cost reduction, short-boarding, and improvement of the supply system. Main tasks such as quality and efficiency. Relevant policies such as the increase in the number of employees and the reduction of the contribution rate of five insurances and one fund for employees have provided loose conditions for the development of enterprises. In 2016, the industry will be relatively stable.
In 2016, the industry will focus on resolving overcapacity, innovation and development and talent cultivation.
1. Resolve overcapacity. This is the current key work. Overcapacity is mainly due to structural oversupply. There is a serious excess of low-end products. High-end products are still in short supply. The amount of products that can be used with CNC machine tools is very small. The excess abrasive is more serious. Some enterprises actually Already in the state of suspension of production and semi-discontinuation, most of these enterprises are high energy consumption, environmental protection is not up to standard, product quality is poor and at a loss. For such enterprises, the State Council executive meeting proposed to shut down and change production. How to transfer the law, such companies are naturally eliminated in the market, and then consciously transform, our industry has a relatively successful transformation of the enterprise. Some companies in the industry have started restructuring work.
What everyone needs to pay attention to is that the State Council has issued the "Opinions on Resolving the Overcapacity of the Iron and Steel Industry to Realize the Development of the Depletion". During the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, the capacity of steel will be reduced by 90 million tons and the pressure will be reduced by 1-150 million tons. Plans for compressing capacity in industries such as cement, alumina, and metallurgy are also being done. These are our downstream industries, and the compression of these industries will reduce the amount of refractory used. It is understood that the annual output of refractory materials is 20-28 million tons. After the production capacity of steel and cement is compressed, the use of refractory materials will be reduced by 15-20%. At present, the use of brown fused alumina in refractory materials is about 70-75 million tons. If it is reduced by 15-20%, it should be reduced by 100,000-1,500 tons. The use of white corundum in refractory materials is about 100,000 tons. 1.5-2 million tons, and now the use of slab corundum in refractory materials is gradually increasing, instead of the use of white corundum, the reduction of white corundum will be further increased. Metallurgical grade black silicon carbide is used as a deoxidizer for steelmaking. It needs to add 8-13 kg per ton of steel. The black silicon carbide should be reduced by 8-250 million tons (180 million tons) (1.58 million tons). About 1.2-20.5 million tons of black silicon carbide used), crude steel output fell 2.2% in 2015, steel companies actively reduce the use of black silicon carbide, from January 2016 statistics, global crude steel output fell 7.1% year-on-year, domestic It was down 7.8% year-on-year, so both silicon carbide exports and internal sales volume will be affected. According to statistics, the operating rate of domestic silicon carbide enterprises in January was 31.5%, and the output was reduced by 8%. Demand for black silicon carbide has fallen by 20%, and future usage may be less than the above figures. In terms of green silicon carbide, the photovoltaic industry was relatively sluggish from January to August, and the production and sales volume was not high. After September, the photovoltaic industry improved, and the demand for green silicon carbide market gradually improved. As the demand for domestic photovoltaic industry increased, the photovoltaic industry “13. "The implementation of the plan will continue to maintain good momentum in the first half of 2016, but it will not lead to a new inventory backlog, which will lead to a new overcapacity and a new round of low-price competition.
In 2015, China's supply-side structural reforms accelerated, and the growth rate of real estate investment dropped sharply. In 2015, the national land transfer fees paid to the national treasury fell by 21.6% year-on-year, of which real estate land fell by 20.9%. This year, there may be a rebound, but the post-90s population A quarter of the reduction, the demand is not so large, it will take 6.3 years to resolve the excess capacity, which will reduce the number of new properties, the amount of grinding and slicing for the construction industry will be reduced accordingly, calculate the account, take the initiative to reduce It is wise.
2. Innovative development. General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out that innovation is the first driving force for development. The Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee regarded "innovation" as the head of the five development concepts, emphasizing the need to bring innovation to the core position of the overall development of the country. In the new normal of economic development, innovation will be the only way for enterprises. Some bosses feel that it is very difficult to survive now. How to innovate is actually the driving force for innovation. The more difficult it is, the more force you will innovate. Only innovation can open up new horizons. Many problems will force us to think about it, such as our brown fused alumina, large sections of sand exported to the United States, some of which are used for refractory materials, and some of which are processed for abrasives. They process more than 10,000 tons of abrasives, and we process the grained sand for 4200-4300 yuan/ton. Where is the difference? We must think that our processing equipment is different from them. Where is the processing technology worse? "Made in China 2025" brings the opportunity for the development of China's machinery industry. The abrasives industry should promote supply-side reforms and fill shortcomings that lack high-end products. It must not only adapt to the abrasive products needed for the development of the machinery industry, but can even manufacture them. New products are supplied to production companies. Carry forward the spirit of craftsmen and make fine products.
3. Strengthen the cultivation and use of talents. The key to innovation and development lies in talents. Now many business owners respond, and we also want to develop, that is, the research and development strength is not enough. At present, our industry needs to develop, and we need high-level expert teams, high-quality technical workers, and excellent entrepreneurs. Some enterprises have adopted a method of joint research and development with universities and research institutes, and have achieved certain results, but this is far from enough. The alliance cannot be just a combination of reputation, nor can it be just a solution to doubts. Special research, making good use of the talents of universities and research institutions, and making more achievements.
In addition, there are some channels that can be used to increase the introduction of technical talents. For foreign professional and technical personnel, through a certain channel, under the principle of voluntariness, recruited and used it for me.
Domestic production enterprises strengthen their ties with foreign-used enterprises, and constantly improve our products under the guidance of professional technicians.
Strengthen the training of professional and technical personnel, encourage them to develop their talents, do a good job in product innovation, establish corresponding incentive mechanisms, fully release their potential, and retain sufficient professional and technical personnel for enterprises. In order to overcome the shortcomings in these aspects, the Expert Committee seriously discussed the industry's technological innovation and technical achievements in the awards method yesterday, rewarding everyone to make more efforts in research and development, and more results.
Key areas of research and development:
1. The abrasive should work hard on the shape and cleanliness of the particles, and the other 80# should be used with fine fine numbers and the use of dusting powder. In addition to grinding, abrasives should be researched and developed in the field of non-grinding. In particular, silicon carbide products should be explored in the field of engineering ceramics by utilizing the characteristics of high SIC hardness and strong acid and alkali resistance.
2, resin abrasives should improve the grinding strength, cutting force efforts, to solve the anti-attenuation ability of the abrasive (such as the attenuation from the exit to the destination).
3, high-grade ceramic abrasives, especially the abrasive tools matched with CNC machine tools, high-speed, high-efficiency abrasive tools are relatively small, should be increased efforts to research and development.
4. The production equipment of automated abrasive tools should speed up the pace of research and development. The automatic feeding, automatic netting, and trademarking independently developed by the existing 5 or 6 abrasive manufacturing enterprises have taken a step, but in general, they should also increase their efforts. .
5, the binder production enterprises should be closely combined with the abrasive manufacturing enterprises to improve the use of the bonding agent, which is also an important part of the abrasive manufacturing (hardness, organization, bonding agent).
I hope that the industry colleagues should strengthen exchanges, learn from each other, promote each other, and make good progress in our industry development.

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