Canadian sawn timber exports to China are higher than Japan

Japan's "Timber Information" reported that Canada published the latest data on the 2011 industry statistics and sawn timber exports statistics. In 2011, the production of sawn timber in Canada was 53.6 million m3, which was basically the same as that of the previous year, of which about 60% (33 million m3) was used for export, and the export volume increased by nearly 10% compared with the previous year. Since 90% of Canadian sawn timber exports are dependent on the US market, the downturn in the US market has led to a halving of exports, but the rapid expansion of the Chinese market in recent years has led to an increase in Canadian sawn timber exports.

I. Regional share of production and export of manufactured materials - high in the west and low in the east

Canadian sawn timber production in 2008 was 80.87 million m3, but it was reduced to 45.25 million m3 in 2009 (about 50% reduction), mainly because the export to the US market decreased from 47.58 million m3 to 19.58 million m3 (about 60%). Of the half of the decline in the size of the export market, BC accounts for 50%, Quebec accounts for 20%, Alberta accounts for 10%, and the layout of sawn timber production has not changed much.

However, in the two years of 2010 and 2011 alone, the production area of ​​Canada has changed a lot. In 2011, Canadian sawn timber production was 53.61 million m3, which was only 0.6% higher than the previous year. However, from the share of each region, BC was 54.4%; Alberta's share increased to 13.8%; Quebec fell below 20%. , 19.5%; Ontario fell to 5.8%, the share is equivalent to half of five years ago. It can be seen that the scale of sawn timber production in Canada shows a regional layout with high west and low east, and the main reason for this change is the sharp expansion of the Chinese market.

The sawn timber exported by Canada to China was only 340,000 m3 in 2006, which was less than 1/10 of that of Japan. In 2007, it continued to grow but stayed at 650,000 m3. In 2008, it increased to 1.17 million m3, which is about Japan. 1/2; in 2009, it reached 2.54 million m3, exceeding the export volume to Japan by 2.17 million m3; in 2010, it continued to increase to 4.51 million m3, which is 1.7 times that of Japan's exports; in 2011, it expanded to 7.34 million m3, reaching exports to Japan. The amount is 2.7 times that of 2.73 million m3. Canadian sawn timber exports to China are expanding rapidly. The expansion of Canadian sawn timber exports to China is mainly due to the geographical advantages, especially in the BC and Alberta provinces on the west coast, where sawn timber production and exports are expanding rapidly. In 2011, the output of sawn timber in BC was 29.14 million m3, an increase of 7.5% over the previous year; Alberta also reached 7.37 million m3, although it was 2.3% lower than the previous year, but it was guaranteed to exceed the 11% level in 2009. Exports of sawn timber from Quebec and Ontario also increased by 11% and 57% respectively over the previous year, but exports to the US market decreased by 2% compared with the previous year, while exports to China were mainly due to increased land routes from the east to the west coast. The cost of transportation is not as significant as the two provinces in the west. Compared with 2010, Quebec sawn timber production decreased by 10%, and Ontario decreased by 12.3%. The reality is that the expansion of exports has not led to an increase in production.

Second, the tree species structure of Canadian sawn timber exports to various markets

Among the sawn timber exported from the United States to the United States, SPF accounts for 90%; for Japanese exports, SPF accounts for 70%, Canadian hemlock accounts for 15%, and Douglas fir accounts for about 10%. In the emerging Chinese market, before the surge in imports in 2007, the SPF occupancy rate was 55%, lower than the Japanese share, and the Canadian hemlock accounted for 27%, close to the tree species structure of Japanese sawn timber, but the share of SPF in 2009 Increased to 78%, reaching 86% in 2011, close to the US import structure. Regarding the average unit price of exports, the SPF for Japanese exports is about US$500, and the export to China is slightly higher than US$300, which is comparable to the US export price.

Canadian sawn timber has soared in exports to China. By 2011, it has expanded to 2.7 times its exports to Japan, inevitably affecting transportation arrangements, but there is no direct competition with Japan in the price band, and the US market is falling. Creating conditions for emerging markets, the advantages of participation in the Chinese market have now emerged. After the recovery of the US market in the future, how the competition with the United States is reflected in the sawn timber market for Japan, perhaps the real impact of China’s participation will emerge after this situation is formed.  

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