Colored chemical industry is expected to force upside after the Festival

Analysts expect that after the Spring Festival holiday, as the feed, sugar and other industries will usher in the traditional off-season consumption, the agricultural products sector is more likely to continue to oscillate shortly after the festival. Chemicals are expected to continue the previous trend and continue to operate in a strong position. The colored plate is currently in a potential stage, and it is more likely to force upside after the festival.

Chemicals: post-holiday is expected to continue the rally

plastic

Even after Plastics pulled back slightly, it continued to go high under the stimulation of continued high crude oil prices outside the market, hitting a record high of 11,675 since September last year, and then declined in anticipation of oversupply in the future. With the advent of the Spring Festival, most businesses gradually leave the market and the market is basically stagnant. The industry is looking forward to the advent of the market after the end of the year; the national market LLDPE (linear low density polyethylene) prices have not changed much. It can be seen that both buyers and sellers are in no mood for war. With the reduction of orders and operating rates, the trading atmosphere of the plastic spot market is also light. Most businesses have already closed the market, offer very little, and follow the market.

Ling Xiaohui, an analyst from China International ** Guangzhou Sales Office, believes that taking into account the relatively weak price influence of Liansu’s current fundamentals, investors are advised to leave the market for the holiday season with oscillatory bias and expect the next month’s oscillation range to be 10615–12220. .

Methanol

Methanol 1305 contract since January 18 daily limit, showing a high oscillation pattern in the past three weeks this week, this week set a new high of 3015 points since the rise in the current round, but closed below the 3000 point mark. On the whole, the methanol 1305 contract maintained an uptrend before the holiday and the lows gradually increased. From the methanol fundamentals point of view, the domestic methanol spot market before the holiday performance was dull, most areas stabilize, market participants gradually leave the festive atmosphere.

However, China International ** Guangzhou Sales Department chemical analyst Hou Chaofan told reporters that he learned from the industry chain customers, the traditional methanol downstream industries such as formaldehyde before the holiday most companies stocked on demand, methanol inventory is generally not much, is expected after the holiday Faced with the need for supplementary storage, it can be concluded that post-holiday methanol will usher in a new round of stocking. Hou Chaofan believes that the post-holiday methanol supply and demand situation will improve. In addition to the above factors, post-holiday methanol has several catalytic factors, including the limited supply of domestic supplies during the period of **, the introduction of the national environmental protection policy on the impact of methanol supply, the United States against Iran. The sanctions and rising crude oil prices, he expressed optimistic about the post-holiday methanol market.

glass

After New Year's Day, the price of glass ** rose all the way, among which the glass 1309 contract hit a maximum of 1,650 yuan/ton, exceeding the spot market price. In mid-January, some glass companies in the East China market were generally optimistic about the price of glass in the glass seminar. First, macroeconomic data stabilized and picked up, stimulating related real estate investment; Second, the urbanization concept put forward by the 18th and will be The future will become the country's development direction, and the glass industry will benefit in the long term. Third, the country's relevant energy conservation policies and building regulations will help increase the use of glass and promote the balance between supply and demand. Fundamental positives prompted glass prices to hit new highs and rose sharply before the holiday.

Huang Guiliang, an analyst with China International ** Guangzhou Sales Department, said that last week, the 1309 contract continued to close at the end of the week, and the post-holiday price is expected to continue the upward trend. The five-week moving average will be the support line for this upside.

Non-ferrous metals: currently in a state of potential

From a macro perspective, the recent financial crisis in the United States has been temporarily eased, and the deadline for the fiscal cliff has been pushed back to this April. This at least ensures that the United States will not have too much uncertainty in recent months, and its economic recovery. It is the main theme. In the euro zone, Greece received a long-term rescue package, plus the successful issuance of government bonds, and the crisis was suspended. In January, the German ZEW economic prosperity index far exceeded the previous period and expectations, and it also proved that the core national economy is gradually emerging from the recession. China's PMI and CPI are also steadily rebounding, and the bottoming-up recovery has been remarkable. Therefore, from the macro-environmental perspective, the global economy’s uncertainty risk is relatively small in the short term, and the recovery risks of major economies have all been mitigated or mitigated to a certain extent. This not only makes the investment confidence of the entire market Zhen, the recovery of downstream demand for more non-ferrous metals added momentum.

It is worth noting that the central banks of the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, and the euro zone and other countries and regions have drastically lowered their domestic interest rates. At the same time, they have introduced large amounts of excess currency into the market by buying domestic government bonds. The liquidity of currencies in various countries is the price of commodities. Formed support, the recent non-ferrous metal prices have also benefited from this.

Fudan Ying, a metal analyst at the China International ** Guangzhou Sales Department, pointed out that copper and zinc are currently affected by macroeconomic data to break the pressure level. Although there have been corrections in the past two days, the upward trend has not changed and it is likely to induce market Raise emotions. Traders and investors are worried that prices will increase further. Either step up stocking or do more in the market. This will push the spot price and the price of copper all to continue to rise, which in turn will increase the market's buying motives, and further Push up metal prices.

In addition, from the perspective of supply and demand, generally speaking, the year 2 to March is the season with the most industrial consumption throughout the year. It is the peak season for companies to prepare for production peaks. During this time, the probability of rising base metals is relatively large. The demand will be released gradually. Therefore, Fu Danying believes that the metal price rises after the year is a high probability event.