Today's point of view
Today, the domestic steel market continued to rise, and the steel mills led the gains at the beginning of the month as an important driving force. Although the market transactions were relatively average, they still benefited from the steel market. Specifically, with the restrictions on environmental protection in Tangshan and Jiangsu in July, supply contraction and inventory continued to be low, which also paved the way for the start of the steel mills in August. From the perspective of market operation, short-term business quotations are still expected to be strong, but they continued to rise sharply at the end of last month and even at the beginning of this month. There is still no effective follow-up of demand transactions, and it is recommended to raise prices and ship mainly.
Macro hotspot
1. [Most of domestic commodity futures closed down, iron ore futures fell, coke closed up more than 1%] Asphalt, fuel oil, iron ore, rapeseed crude fell more than 2%, sugar, coking coal, soybean meal, Zheng coal, Shanghai lead More than 1% fell, rubber, Zheng cotton, rapeseed, Zheng alcohol, Shanghai tin, manganese silicon, Shanghai aluminum, hot coil, thread, eggs, cotton yarn, Shanghai silver, Shanghai gold, etc. closed down. Coke, apple, Shanghai zinc, ferrosilicon, etc. closed up more than 1%, Shanghai nickel, corn, Shanghai copper, glass, etc. closed up.
2, [Shanghai stock index unilaterally down and break the 10-day moving average in the afternoon, steel, insurance, military collectives fell]
The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2,824.21 points, down 1.80%, with a turnover of 151.7 billion.
The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 9005.37 points, down 1.89%, with a turnover of 176.8 billion.
The GEM closed at 1,542.77 points, down 1.24%, with a turnover of 52.7 billion.
3. [The State Food and Drug Administration, in conjunction with a multi-departmental verification team, went to Wuhan to verify the disposal of the Baibai Broken Vaccine] In order to further infer the instinct of General Secretary Jin Ping and Premier Li Keqiang’s important instructions to protect the health of the people, on August 1, according to the State Council The State Food and Drug Administration, together with the Health and Health Commission and other departments, formed a verification team headed by the party secretary of the State Food and Drug Administration and deputy director Li Li, and went to Wuhan to evaluate the 2017 valence of Wuhan Biological Products Research Institute Co., Ltd. Unqualified DTP vaccine disposal work was carried out for verification.
4. [The number of coal mines in the country has been reduced to 7,000 in the second half of the year.) The data shows that in the first half of the year, the number of coal mines nationwide decreased from 12,000 at the end of the 12th Five-Year Plan to around 7,000. The timing of coal power planning and construction has been continuously optimized, and the increase in production capacity has been strictly controlled. The elimination of backward production capacity of coal power has been accelerated.
Market today
Raw material
Billet: The price of the national billet market is getting higher. In the early morning, the Changli area rose by 10 yuan/ton, and the Tangshan Qian'an area rose by 20 yuan/ton. After the increase, the billet could be sold. Today, Tangshan billet straight transaction is general, warehousing spot 3920-3930 yuan / ton tax-included part of the low-cost transaction; steel futures volatility, the overall sales of downstream finished products are active. Today, Shandong steel billet rose 30 yuan / ton, Q235 billet factory 3890-3900 yuan / ton, the transaction is still acceptable, the downstream more than inquiry, the middlemen rallies to ship.
Domestic mines: Some market prices in the main domestic production areas have been temporarily stabilized. Specifically, North China-Tangshan 66% dry-based tax-included cash factory 670-680 yuan / ton, Qianxi 66% dry-based tax-included cash out of 660-670 yuan / ton, Qian'an 66% dry basis tax-included cash factory 680-690 yuan / ton; Zunhua 66% dry basis tax-included cash factory 665-675 yuan / ton.
Imported mines: The spot market price of imported ore fell by about 3~8 yuan compared with yesterday. The mainstream high-grade powder has a drop of 5~8 yuan compared with yesterday. The resources such as low-grade ultra-fine powder are firmer and the market activity is slightly worse. . This morning, the quotation of traders was basically stable compared with yesterday, but after the iron ore futures dive in the afternoon, most traders lowered the offer price by about 5 yuan. Today, the steel mills are inquiring and the price is more serious. Some steel mills have frequent production due to sudden production. Deliberately reduce inventory and reduce purchases.
Steel spot
Construction steel: Today's domestic construction steel prices rose slightly. According to the specific price, the average price of 25 major cities in China is 4353 yuan/ton, which is 22 yuan/ton higher than that of the previous trading day. Among them, North China and East China have a larger increase, followed by South China and Northeast China, and Central, Southwest and Northwest China. The increase is relatively small. Specifically, the night snails went up, and the price of the East China-dominated steel mills was raised as scheduled. Therefore, the quotations of many merchants continued to rise in the early trading. Although the snails went up after the opening, the spot transactions were not warm, and some local steel mills were quite The price push is stronger, the price has a second adjustment, the snail plunges sharply in the late afternoon, and the spot market transaction turns cold. From the market feedback, individual merchants have loose willingness to ship. At present, with the increase in prices, the acceptance of end-users has declined, the enthusiasm of middle-managers has declined, and the sentiment has warmed up. In particular, today’s news boosts and price increases are not matched. In general, it is expected that tomorrow will be domestic. Construction steel prices are adjusted in a narrow range.
Hot-rolled coils: Today's hot rolling prices in 24 major cities nationwide rose slightly. The average price of 3.0 hot-rolled coils was 4,370 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the average national price of 4.75 hot-rolled coils was 4313. Yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In the early days, due to the impact of higher futures, market confidence was relatively sufficient, and merchants' offers rose slightly. However, as the recent price continues to rise, the downstream accepts some difficulties and the market transactions are relatively weak. With the fall of the afternoon futures, the market wait-and-see sentiment aggravated, and some market quotations fell slightly. In addition, today Tangshan billet market price rose 20 yuan / ton, the current price of carbon billet is 3840 yuan / ton. On the whole, it is expected that the price of the hot-rolled market will fluctuate tomorrow.
Plate: Today, the domestic plate market price rose slightly. The average price of 20mm plate in 23 major cities nationwide was 4,406 yuan / ton, up 9 yuan / ton from the previous trading day. In the early days, under the influence of higher futures, the market mentality was more optimistic, and the merchant's offer rose steadily. However, the current demand is generally weak, and the transaction has not improved significantly. As the futures of the afternoon fall, the market wait-and-see attitude is aggravated. In the short-term, when the market inventory is relatively low and the cost support is strong, the market price will still run at a high level. In addition, today Tangshan billet market price rose 20 yuan / ton, the current price of carbon billet is 3840 yuan / ton. On the whole, it is expected that the price of the plate market will fluctuate tomorrow.
Cold-rolled coils: Today's national cold-rolled prices are mainly up. Price: 1.0 national cold rolling average price of 4764 yuan / ton, an increase of 16 yuan / ton compared with the previous working day. The main market price: Shanghai market 1.0mm WISCO coil plate offer 4750 yuan / ton, Guangzhou market 1.0mm anang steel coil offer 4780 yuan / ton, Tianjin market 1.0mm anang steel coil offer 4580 yuan / ton. Market: Today's market prices have been raised, the current market mentality is better, traders are actively pulling up, but the current market demand is still relatively flat, and the end customers are not able to accept the current market prices, resulting in cold rolling overall shipments More general. Therefore, it is expected that the recent increase in the price of the cold-rolled spot market will stabilize and stabilize.
Steel: Today's domestic steel prices have risen slightly, and the national average price of Gongjiao and H-beam has increased by about 10-30 yuan/ton. Specifically, Tangshan's early-disc type steel mills rose 10-50 yuan/ton overall, and the intraday work tanks chased 10-20 yuan/ton, and the overall transaction was smooth. The pursuit of steel billets has played a certain role in boosting the market. The downstream merchants of steel sections are actively purchasing, and the market is holding a bullish attitude. In addition to the new round of environmental protection and production restrictions, the inventory of steel mills has decreased, and the cost of billets has increased. The factory is willing to pay a strong price. The price of East China's profiled materials rose slightly by about RMB 20/ton. Due to factors such as the increase in the price of steel products and the continued growth of billets, the spot price has stabilized and strengthened. In the afternoon, although the futures have a slight correction, the business's bullish mentality does not change. In South China, due to the significant increase in the ex-factory price of Tangshan and steel mills today, the cost of arrival of South China profiles has increased significantly. The prices of South China profiles have been raised by RMB 30/ton today. However, most merchants also indicated that downstream demand is sluggish and prices are rising. After the shipment is still difficult to increase the volume. On the whole, the current restrictions on steel production and the increase in billet costs have increased their bullish attitude towards the market, while the market has maintained a certain upward trend in view of the increase in costs and resource pressure, so short-term steel prices remain consolidating. Strong operation.
Steel pipe: Domestic welded pipe prices rose slightly on the 1st. In terms of varieties, the average price of welded pipe 4 inch 3.75mm is 4490 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the average price of galvanized pipe 4 inch 3.75mm is 5210 yuan/ton, which is higher than the previous trading day. 21 yuan / ton; seamless pipe 108 * 405mm national average price of 5280 yuan / ton, compared with the previous trading day price rose 7 yuan / ton. Today, the mainstream urban welded pipe and galvanized pipe have risen slightly, and the seamless pipe has also risen steadily. In terms of welded pipes and galvanized pipes, the price of Ruifeng strip steel was slightly raised by 30-40 yuan/ton today, and the ex-factory price of the mainstream pipe factories in the country also increased. According to the market, it has recently been affected by the rise of black futures, which has greatly boosted the market mentality. In addition, the recent increase in infrastructure investment by the state is expected to be a high probability event in the second half of the year. Short-term domestic welded pipe and galvanized pipe prices are expected to rise in a narrow range. In terms of seamless pipes, Shandong tube billet was stable today, and Jiangsu billet price rose by RMB 40/ton. The factory price of seamless pipe factory remained stable today. Markets in many markets have increased market prices today. Traders' feedback began this week and shipments have improved. According to the author's understanding, the orders of the factory are very good in the near future, and they are more optimistic about the market outlook. In addition, the overall steel market has risen recently, and the trader's mentality has gradually begun to change. In general, the price of seamless pipes has stabilized and strengthened recently.
Futures: Today, domestic black commodity futures, except coke, fell, and the volume of transactions fell. Among them, the finished product fell slightly and fell, coking coal and iron ore fell sharply, and coke rose slightly. Specifically: Today's market price performance is high and low. In early trading, the price of the new phase of East China's leading steel mills rose by 100, which was in line with expectations. However, the market was not smooth, and near the midday, the financial market began to dive, downstream demand. Continue to wait, the spot transaction price is downgraded. In the afternoon, as the profitable longs continued to significantly reduce their positions, the prices of finished products continued to fluctuate downward. In the news, the Central Economic Work Conference resolutely curbed housing prices and formed expectations for the decline in demand for building materials. Both the futures market and the stock market fell. Among them, the stock market real estate and sectors were among the top losers. In general, the short-term market will face a certain correction. In terms of operation, it is recommended to raise rallies. Short, pay attention to the position.
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