Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, November 12 (Xinhua) - The tight supply of diesel oil was exposed in the middle to late September. It has become increasingly fierce in recent days and even some parts of the region have experienced a "diesel shortage." So what is the real cause of the “diesel shortage� When will the supply of diesel oil ease? From last year's "gas shortage" to this year's "diesel shortage", and then to the "electricity shortage" and "coal shortage" that have frequently appeared in recent years, what problems are reflected in China's energy consumption? How to avoid resurgence of similar sudden supply shortages?
Diesel shortage "fog"
At the beginning of November, the supply of diesel fuel that has lasted for more than a month has become more severe. The long queues of gas stations, limited supply of diesel fuel, and supply suspension have affected many provinces and regions in China's north and south.
Recently, nearly 20% of gas stations in Jiangxi Province stopped supplying diesel fuel. Most gas stations have limited supply of diesel fuel. In Fujian Longyan, Sanming and Nanpingdi, there have been long queues of freight vehicles waiting for refueling. Yinchuan's main and social units have stopped the sale of diesel. Even in Shandong Province, where there are many local refineries and resource supplies are relatively abundant, there are also tight diesel supplies.
Du Zhanhai, the owner of a freight company in Tangshan, told the reporter: “We can't add oil! Especially to Shanghai, Inner Mongolia and Wuhan. The gas station at the high-speed roadside is either fuelless or limited, and the carts line up for several kilometers.†He said the company The operation of more than a dozen trucks are now afraid to send out to pull goods, business has been affected.
"Although diesel can be added, many gas stations are limited. The car can only add 100 yuan, and the cart can only add 300 yuan to 400 yuan," said Yang Zhining, the captain of Hebei Qianxi County Post Office.
According to data from the China Petroleum Exporting Committee of the China Business Confederation, more than 2,000 private gas stations in the south stopped operating due to lack of oil, and shutdown gas stations were concentrated in Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang provinces.
In fact, this "diesel shortage" has already begun to show signs as early as mid-September. On October 26th, after the country raised the prices of refined oil products, it did not bring about the relief of the diesel supply after the adjustment of the price adjustment was expected. On the contrary, the shortage was even more serious.
The reporter learned that PetroChina and Sinopec, two major domestic oil product suppliers, have taken measures to increase the supply of diesel oil. In October, CNPC’s diesel production and sales volume increased by approximately 300,000 tons from the same period of last year. From August to October, Sinopec added a total of 310,000 tons of diesel fuel to the market.
However, these efforts have failed to prevent the spread of the “diesel shortageâ€.
Asking for sudden increase in demand Wang Zhen, dean of the Institute of Business Administration at China University of Petroleum, believes that the market is prepared for some of the conventional factors such as the overhaul of equipment in refineries and the peak season for diesel consumption. The main reason for this impact on the market was the soaring demand for diesel fuel brought by the economy, and factors such as “surprise-style†power cuts and aggravation of supply and demand tension.
The correlation between diesel consumption and national economic development is relatively high. It is mainly used in industries such as transportation, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, construction, industry, and commerce. Its seasonal characteristics are obvious, and it is subject to great fluctuations in the development of the industry.
Since the third quarter, the national economy has continued to maintain rapid growth. In October, China's manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 54.7%, reflecting a three-month rise. In particular, the new orders index rose by nearly 60% and the finished goods inventory index was below the critical point, reflecting the current strong social demand.
According to PetroChina's monitoring and analysis, major national support projects in the northeast, northwest and other regions have been successively launched, and the post-disaster reconstruction in Qinghai, Gansu, and Jilin has accelerated, making the demand for diesel that should enter the traditional off-season to remain strong recently. From October to November, CNPC’s diesel sales in Xinjiang are expected to reach 580,000 tons, an increase of 21.8% year-on-year. The southern region and the southeastern coastal provinces and cities were boosted by the export situation. In particular, export enterprises gradually entered the production season of overseas Christmas orders, and transportation oil increased significantly. In addition, the end of the fishing season in September, the concentration of fishery oil, also led to diesel consumption.
The reporter learned that in Zhejiang, where the shortage of diesel oil is relatively serious, Sinopec diesel sales increased from 500,000 tons per month in the first half of the year to 700,000 tons per month in the last two months, an increase of 40%, and the normal growth will not exceed 10%.
Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economic Research Center at Xiamen University, believes that local governments have been forced to use power-supply diesel generators to complete the energy-saving emission reduction targets at the end of the year. This is one of the important reasons for the sudden increase in demand for diesel fuel.
Hebei Xinglong County is a small county with a population of 300,000. Executive deputy governor Min Haidong told reporters that due to energy-saving and emission reduction requirements, in July and August this year, the county’s industrial and mining enterprises use 89 million kilowatt-hours of electricity per month, and dropped to 66 million kilowatt-hours in October. By the end of the month, there were 46 enterprises in the county. Have to stop production. In November, it won 70 million kWh quota before the company started production. Some small businesses have to buy diesel power to protect production.
It is understood that in order to complete the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" energy-saving emission reduction targets, some of the more pressured provinces and cities, such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Henan, Hebei, etc., have taken measures to cut power, directly stimulated the rise of local diesel demand . Industry insiders expect that the accidental power cuts will contribute about 100,000 tons to the national diesel demand.
It is not just the demand that is limited by the supply-restricted production behind the tightening of supply. The reporter learned from the investigation that the Shandong local refinery, which occupies a considerable share of the refined oil market in China, was affected by power cuts, and the processing load of some enterprises was reduced, which also reduced the supply of oil products.
Zhou Dadi, former director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, believes that the introduction of the second round of quantitative easing monetary policy in the United States has boosted the prices of international bulk commodities, including crude oil. China's refined oil prices are indirectly linked to crude oil prices. Although the country raised the prices of refined oil products on October 26th, the expectation of further upward adjustment of domestic refined oil prices has not been released, and the phenomenon of soaring social oil remains.
On the 11th, the New York market crude oil prices closed at $87.81 a barrel. In fact, due to the fact that international crude oil prices have exceeded US$85 per barrel, the price of diesel fuel in some local refineries has already experienced “pumping upside downâ€.
According to statistics, the price of Shandong's main refining diesel transaction has increased from RMB 6,900 per ton at the beginning of October to around RMB 8,000 per ton at the end of October. The maximum retail price limit stipulated by the State of Shandong Province is 0# diesel fuel per ton 7445 yuan, -10# diesel fuel price per ton 7892 yuan, part of the wholesale price of refining has exceeded the maximum retail price limit.
Piling up "upside down", part of refining and production cuts, private gas stations to suspend business, so, part of the gas stations of the two major groups have queued up and limited supply. In addition, as the two major groups adhered to the national price limit, some private gas stations shifted from refining to the two major groups to purchase refined oil. Under the condition of “inverted pricesâ€, tight supply, and increased social fructure, the two groups began to restrict external wholesales. .
Zhou Dadi said that China is a big consumer of diesel fuel. In terms of production technology, domestic refineries have a ratio of diesel oil and gasoline of around 2:1. In other words, domestic oil production is based on the balance between diesel supply and demand. Once the supply or demand side of the market changes, it is exposed in the form of a shortage of diesel fuel.
It is understood that PetroChina and Sinopec recently further increased the supply of diesel fuel. In November, PetroChina will maintain the highest level of crude oil daily processing of 400,000 tons, and the daily production of diesel will increase by 10,000 tons compared with October, reaching an average of 168,000 tons per day. In November, Sinopec planned to sell diesel by 23% year-on-year, diesel production by 11% year-on-year, and imported diesel to make up for the domestic supply and demand gap.
How to curb the "abandonment" of energy supply
Many people still remembered the “gas shortage†that swept through many regions of China in the same period last year. This year, a "diesel shortage" has once again led people's attention to the energy sector.
People are no strangers to the “diesel shortageâ€. Since 2005, due to the lack of rationalization of the domestic refined oil price mechanism, “oil shortages†have occurred frequently. However, since the implementation of the new refined oil price mechanism in China at the end of 2008, the "oil shortage" has first appeared.
“This aspect shows that the refined oil price mechanism needs to be further improved. On the other hand, while looking for reasons from the supply and demand side, this “diesel shortage†reminds us to consider more solutions from the demand side, such as coal and other bulk cargoes. Whether it is reasonable to use inefficient transport methods such as highway transportation,†said Wang Zhen.
According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China imported 197 million tons of crude oil in the first 10 months of this year, a substantial increase of 19.5% year-on-year. Zhou Dadi predicts that China’s oil dependence on foreign countries may exceed 55% this year.
Lin Boqiang pointed out that from the “gas shortage†to the “oil shortage†to the frequent “coal shortage†and “electricity shortage†in recent years, although each sudden supply shortage has different causes, fundamentally speaking, All this can be attributed to the lag in the shift in economic development patterns and market failures under administrative orders.
Zhou Dadi believes that further rationalizing energy prices, transforming inefficient energy consumption patterns, and strengthening market monitoring and early warning, and improving reserve and emergency response capabilities can fundamentally curb the energy supply shortage.
Diesel shortage "fog"
At the beginning of November, the supply of diesel fuel that has lasted for more than a month has become more severe. The long queues of gas stations, limited supply of diesel fuel, and supply suspension have affected many provinces and regions in China's north and south.
Recently, nearly 20% of gas stations in Jiangxi Province stopped supplying diesel fuel. Most gas stations have limited supply of diesel fuel. In Fujian Longyan, Sanming and Nanpingdi, there have been long queues of freight vehicles waiting for refueling. Yinchuan's main and social units have stopped the sale of diesel. Even in Shandong Province, where there are many local refineries and resource supplies are relatively abundant, there are also tight diesel supplies.
Du Zhanhai, the owner of a freight company in Tangshan, told the reporter: “We can't add oil! Especially to Shanghai, Inner Mongolia and Wuhan. The gas station at the high-speed roadside is either fuelless or limited, and the carts line up for several kilometers.†He said the company The operation of more than a dozen trucks are now afraid to send out to pull goods, business has been affected.
"Although diesel can be added, many gas stations are limited. The car can only add 100 yuan, and the cart can only add 300 yuan to 400 yuan," said Yang Zhining, the captain of Hebei Qianxi County Post Office.
According to data from the China Petroleum Exporting Committee of the China Business Confederation, more than 2,000 private gas stations in the south stopped operating due to lack of oil, and shutdown gas stations were concentrated in Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang provinces.
In fact, this "diesel shortage" has already begun to show signs as early as mid-September. On October 26th, after the country raised the prices of refined oil products, it did not bring about the relief of the diesel supply after the adjustment of the price adjustment was expected. On the contrary, the shortage was even more serious.
The reporter learned that PetroChina and Sinopec, two major domestic oil product suppliers, have taken measures to increase the supply of diesel oil. In October, CNPC’s diesel production and sales volume increased by approximately 300,000 tons from the same period of last year. From August to October, Sinopec added a total of 310,000 tons of diesel fuel to the market.
However, these efforts have failed to prevent the spread of the “diesel shortageâ€.
Asking for sudden increase in demand Wang Zhen, dean of the Institute of Business Administration at China University of Petroleum, believes that the market is prepared for some of the conventional factors such as the overhaul of equipment in refineries and the peak season for diesel consumption. The main reason for this impact on the market was the soaring demand for diesel fuel brought by the economy, and factors such as “surprise-style†power cuts and aggravation of supply and demand tension.
The correlation between diesel consumption and national economic development is relatively high. It is mainly used in industries such as transportation, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, construction, industry, and commerce. Its seasonal characteristics are obvious, and it is subject to great fluctuations in the development of the industry.
Since the third quarter, the national economy has continued to maintain rapid growth. In October, China's manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 54.7%, reflecting a three-month rise. In particular, the new orders index rose by nearly 60% and the finished goods inventory index was below the critical point, reflecting the current strong social demand.
According to PetroChina's monitoring and analysis, major national support projects in the northeast, northwest and other regions have been successively launched, and the post-disaster reconstruction in Qinghai, Gansu, and Jilin has accelerated, making the demand for diesel that should enter the traditional off-season to remain strong recently. From October to November, CNPC’s diesel sales in Xinjiang are expected to reach 580,000 tons, an increase of 21.8% year-on-year. The southern region and the southeastern coastal provinces and cities were boosted by the export situation. In particular, export enterprises gradually entered the production season of overseas Christmas orders, and transportation oil increased significantly. In addition, the end of the fishing season in September, the concentration of fishery oil, also led to diesel consumption.
The reporter learned that in Zhejiang, where the shortage of diesel oil is relatively serious, Sinopec diesel sales increased from 500,000 tons per month in the first half of the year to 700,000 tons per month in the last two months, an increase of 40%, and the normal growth will not exceed 10%.
Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economic Research Center at Xiamen University, believes that local governments have been forced to use power-supply diesel generators to complete the energy-saving emission reduction targets at the end of the year. This is one of the important reasons for the sudden increase in demand for diesel fuel.
Hebei Xinglong County is a small county with a population of 300,000. Executive deputy governor Min Haidong told reporters that due to energy-saving and emission reduction requirements, in July and August this year, the county’s industrial and mining enterprises use 89 million kilowatt-hours of electricity per month, and dropped to 66 million kilowatt-hours in October. By the end of the month, there were 46 enterprises in the county. Have to stop production. In November, it won 70 million kWh quota before the company started production. Some small businesses have to buy diesel power to protect production.
It is understood that in order to complete the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" energy-saving emission reduction targets, some of the more pressured provinces and cities, such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Henan, Hebei, etc., have taken measures to cut power, directly stimulated the rise of local diesel demand . Industry insiders expect that the accidental power cuts will contribute about 100,000 tons to the national diesel demand.
It is not just the demand that is limited by the supply-restricted production behind the tightening of supply. The reporter learned from the investigation that the Shandong local refinery, which occupies a considerable share of the refined oil market in China, was affected by power cuts, and the processing load of some enterprises was reduced, which also reduced the supply of oil products.
Zhou Dadi, former director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, believes that the introduction of the second round of quantitative easing monetary policy in the United States has boosted the prices of international bulk commodities, including crude oil. China's refined oil prices are indirectly linked to crude oil prices. Although the country raised the prices of refined oil products on October 26th, the expectation of further upward adjustment of domestic refined oil prices has not been released, and the phenomenon of soaring social oil remains.
On the 11th, the New York market crude oil prices closed at $87.81 a barrel. In fact, due to the fact that international crude oil prices have exceeded US$85 per barrel, the price of diesel fuel in some local refineries has already experienced “pumping upside downâ€.
According to statistics, the price of Shandong's main refining diesel transaction has increased from RMB 6,900 per ton at the beginning of October to around RMB 8,000 per ton at the end of October. The maximum retail price limit stipulated by the State of Shandong Province is 0# diesel fuel per ton 7445 yuan, -10# diesel fuel price per ton 7892 yuan, part of the wholesale price of refining has exceeded the maximum retail price limit.
Piling up "upside down", part of refining and production cuts, private gas stations to suspend business, so, part of the gas stations of the two major groups have queued up and limited supply. In addition, as the two major groups adhered to the national price limit, some private gas stations shifted from refining to the two major groups to purchase refined oil. Under the condition of “inverted pricesâ€, tight supply, and increased social fructure, the two groups began to restrict external wholesales. .
Zhou Dadi said that China is a big consumer of diesel fuel. In terms of production technology, domestic refineries have a ratio of diesel oil and gasoline of around 2:1. In other words, domestic oil production is based on the balance between diesel supply and demand. Once the supply or demand side of the market changes, it is exposed in the form of a shortage of diesel fuel.
It is understood that PetroChina and Sinopec recently further increased the supply of diesel fuel. In November, PetroChina will maintain the highest level of crude oil daily processing of 400,000 tons, and the daily production of diesel will increase by 10,000 tons compared with October, reaching an average of 168,000 tons per day. In November, Sinopec planned to sell diesel by 23% year-on-year, diesel production by 11% year-on-year, and imported diesel to make up for the domestic supply and demand gap.
How to curb the "abandonment" of energy supply
Many people still remembered the “gas shortage†that swept through many regions of China in the same period last year. This year, a "diesel shortage" has once again led people's attention to the energy sector.
People are no strangers to the “diesel shortageâ€. Since 2005, due to the lack of rationalization of the domestic refined oil price mechanism, “oil shortages†have occurred frequently. However, since the implementation of the new refined oil price mechanism in China at the end of 2008, the "oil shortage" has first appeared.
“This aspect shows that the refined oil price mechanism needs to be further improved. On the other hand, while looking for reasons from the supply and demand side, this “diesel shortage†reminds us to consider more solutions from the demand side, such as coal and other bulk cargoes. Whether it is reasonable to use inefficient transport methods such as highway transportation,†said Wang Zhen.
According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China imported 197 million tons of crude oil in the first 10 months of this year, a substantial increase of 19.5% year-on-year. Zhou Dadi predicts that China’s oil dependence on foreign countries may exceed 55% this year.
Lin Boqiang pointed out that from the “gas shortage†to the “oil shortage†to the frequent “coal shortage†and “electricity shortage†in recent years, although each sudden supply shortage has different causes, fundamentally speaking, All this can be attributed to the lag in the shift in economic development patterns and market failures under administrative orders.
Zhou Dadi believes that further rationalizing energy prices, transforming inefficient energy consumption patterns, and strengthening market monitoring and early warning, and improving reserve and emergency response capabilities can fundamentally curb the energy supply shortage.