There are four major problems in current industrial operations. In recent years, China's industrial slowdown, which is the result of resonance between cyclical factors and structural factors. Unbalanced supply and demand caused by overcapacity, rising manufacturing costs and declining competitiveness due to slow technological progress are all prominent problems in current industrial operations. Specifically, there are four major issues that are particularly noteworthy. 1. Some export-oriented manufacturing industries showed signs of shifting and returning to the nest. From the statistical data, in recent years, US manufacturing industry's investment in China has slowed down markedly, and China has become a key area for US manufacturing industry to “return to the nestâ€. In 2011, US foreign direct investment in manufacturing increased by 10.4%, slowing by 0.8 percentage points compared to 2010. From the perspective of regional distribution, investment growth in Asia Pacific and Europe has slowed down, and the growth rate of investment in North America has accelerated significantly. Among them, the growth rate of China's manufacturing investment slowed by 12.7 percentage points, ranking first among the major investment host countries. This shows that due to rising labor costs, the appreciation of the renminbi, the soaring prices of raw materials, and the slowdown in global economic growth, China's manufacturing industry has now entered a trough and adjustment period. 2. The problem of overcapacity in some industries is outstanding. At present, overcapacity has become the most important factor restricting China's industrial growth. According to the 2012 survey, the excess is: steel 21%, automobile 12%, cement 28%, electrolytic aluminum 35%, stainless steel 60%, pesticide 60%, photovoltaic cells 95%, glass 93%. If such a large-scale and large-scale overcapacity cannot be effectively solved, it will cause our industry to fall into a long-term depression. 3. The issue of triangular debt has surfaced. Affected by the slowdown in external demand and financial constraints, the “triangular debt†problem has begun to emerge, and there is a trend of further spread and expansion. The corporate debt problems of machinery manufacturing, coal and steel industries are more prominent. From January to July 2012, the accounts receivable of the machinery industry amounted to 2.51 trillion yuan, up 16.89% year-on-year, much higher than the growth rate of the main business income of the industry during the same period (9.60%); heavy mining, electrical appliances, engineering machinery and other industries should The proportion of accounts receivable to the main business income was 37.5%, 33.4% and 35.7% respectively. Different from the triangular debt crisis in the early 1990s, this type of enterprise has been involved, and SMEs and private enterprises are more serious. Local investment and financing platforms and large-scale infrastructure projects have become one of the sources of triangular debt. 4. Industrial production cost pressure increases. First, taxation and financing costs remain high. At present, the borrowing cost of Chinese enterprises has exceeded 10%, exceeding the level of capital profit rate of most industries. The profitable space of enterprises has been compressed due to the rising loan cost. Many industries can only maintain the meager profit margin. Second, the logistics cost is too high. According to estimates, China's logistics costs are not only higher than the manufacturing industries, such as India, Brazil, Vietnam, the Philippines and other developing countries, but also higher than the United States and other developed countries. Third, China's labor advantage is disappearing: In recent years, the average wage growth rate of Chinese workers is 20%. If the average growth rate of GDP (10%) is used to measure the efficiency growth rate, it can be seen that the relative cost is getting more and more expensive. Industrial development environment and operational trends In 2013, China's industrial economic operation may enter the end of the latest round of adjustment cycle. Although there are many favorable factors for maintaining stable industrial development, the pressure on various aspects is still relatively large, and the basis for recovery is still relatively fragile. Some uncertainties may have unpredictable impacts on industrial operations. 1. The macro environment of industrial development is expected to improve. First, a proactive fiscal policy will inject more vitality into the enterprise. At an economic symposium held last year, Premier Wen Jiabao made it clear that special attention should be paid to improving structural tax cuts, expanding the scope of business tax reforms to VAT, reducing taxes and fees in circulation, and reducing the tax burden on small and micro enterprises. Therefore, the fiscal policy in 2013 continued the “positive†tone and adjusted the tax policy to boost the vitality of the micro economy. Second, the development environment for SMEs will improve. First, as the central bank cut interest rates continuously, coupled with credit support for small and micro enterprises, the financial situation of SMEs will ease, and the financial costs will drop significantly. Second, the promotion of fiscal structural tax cuts and the improvement of the national export tax rebate policy will increase the profitability of SMEs and stimulate enterprises to expand investment and production. Thirdly, the gradual implementation and improvement of the new non-public 36 will stimulate the investment enthusiasm of the private enterprises, and inject the market-oriented genes into the previous state-owned monopoly industries such as railway, energy, telecommunications and finance, and form new consumption power, thus comprehensively Stimulate consumption and stimulate domestic demand. Third, the state's support for strategic emerging industries has increased. On July 9, 2012, the State Council issued a notice on the development plan for the strategic emerging industries of the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€. In the energy conservation and environmental protection industry, information technology industry, biological industry, high-end equipment manufacturing industry, new energy industry, new materials industry, new energy automobile industry, clear development goals have been set, and special funds have been set up by the central government. This means that strategic emerging industries will enter a rapid development track in 2013 and provide new growth drivers for the entire industrial growth. Fourth, the company’s initiative to go to stocks is coming to an end. The finished goods inventory index for November 2012 was 48.8%, reaching a low level since this year. At the same time, raw material inventories have risen, which has caused the difference between raw material inventory and finished goods inventory to start to rise, to a certain extent, indicating that the industrial added value growth rate may bottom out in the next year. 2. There are still many unstable and uncertain factors in industrial operation. Although China's industry has a driving force for recovery, this recovery will still be interfered by various factors inside and outside. The industrial adjustment experienced by China since last year is not a small-cycle adjustment, but a medium-term long-term capacity adjustment process. The time and magnitude of the overall industrial growth decline may exceed the previous expectations. From the international situation, as the trend of the European debt crisis is still uncertain, Sino-US trade frictions continue to occur, and China's trade dependence on Europe and the United States is still relatively large. Therefore, the industrial product export situation in 2013 is still not optimistic. At the same time, in the case of a weak global market, various forms of trade protectionist measures will also increase, international trade and exchange rate friction may further intensify, and further reduce the space for China's export of superior products. From the domestic situation, the continuous correction of the current round of industrial growth has surpassed the business cycle in the usual sense, and is the result of the combination of multiple cycle factors and the potential growth rate in the medium and long term. Therefore, at present, China is in a period of new technology and new industries seeking breakthroughs. Before the new technology achieves the final breakthrough, the industrial economy will be transformed from the past high-speed growth to the medium-speed or even low-speed growth stage. From the perspective of industrial enterprises, enterprise transformation and upgrading can be described as difficult. At present, China's industrial growth rate is slowing down. On the one hand, it is affected by the decrease in exports and the lack of domestic demand. On the other hand, it lacks innovative ability and lacks a new growth engine. The development of strategic emerging industries with high technology content and large added value has the characteristics of large investment, long cycle, slow effect and high risk. At present, most industrial enterprises are faced with the duality of “destocking†and “de-capacityâ€. pressure. In the case of widespread business difficulties and a significant reduction in profits, industrial transformation and upgrading lacks funds and technical support, and industrial structure optimization and adjustment are still in a period of pain. 3. In 2013, industrial operation will gradually stabilize. Considering the domestic and international economic environment and the trend of industrial operation, we believe that the industrial economic development in 2013 does not yet have a substantial growth base, but with the continued growth of the “stable growth†policy and the increase in local investment, the industry has increased. The rapid recovery will be moderate, and the industrial added value is expected to increase by 10.5%. (1) The growth rate of raw materials industry will rebound. In 2013, the growth rate of the raw material industry will pick up and the pace of industrial restructuring will accelerate. First of all, the overcapacity situation in the steel industry is difficult to reverse in the short term. Secondly, the non-ferrous industry will continue to differentiate its momentum, and the overall trend will be further slowed down. Third, the world's oil prices will be lower, which will alleviate the cost pressure of China's petrochemical industry to some extent. At the same time, the demand for agrochemical products such as fertilizers and pesticides will increase as the country's investment in agriculture increases, and the automobile and other industries will steadily increase. Growth will also drive demand for other chemical products. (2) Equipment manufacturing growth stopped falling and stabilized. In 2013, the equipment manufacturing industry is facing relatively good development opportunities, and the annual growth rate is expected to be around 12%. In particular, modern aviation equipment, satellite and its application industries, advanced rail transit equipment industry, marine engineering equipment and intelligent manufacturing equipment will become the core driving force for the growth of the entire equipment manufacturing industry. With the support of emerging strategic industrial planning for high-end manufacturing and the follow-up of expanding domestic demand policies, the equipment manufacturing industry is expected to pick up and achieve rapid growth throughout the year. (3) The growth rate of the consumer goods industry rebounded slightly. In 2013, the growth rate of the consumer goods industry will pick up, but the recovery rate is limited. From the perspective of specific industries, the state financial subsidies for energy-saving appliances will promote the light industry to maintain a certain growth rate; textile products will not fall sharply with the stability of cotton prices; the pharmaceutical industry will be able to promote the national medical reform and improve the drug pricing mechanism. Steady growth. However, as the export situation is still grim, relying on external demand to promote the growth of the consumer goods industry is limited, making the growth rate of the consumer goods industry rebound. (4) The growth of electronics manufacturing industry continued to slow down. In 2012, the growth rate of the electronics manufacturing industry in terms of production, exports and investment all dropped significantly, showing no signs of reaching the bottom. It is expected that the growth rate will continue to slow down in 2013. Affected by the decline in the growth rate of fixed asset investment, the rapid cooling of popular electronics industries such as optoelectronic devices and photovoltaic cells in 2012, combined with the negative exports to Germany, Italy and other European countries, will not rebound in 2013. . Take five measures to promote the healthy development of industry to stabilize industrial growth. On the one hand, we must comprehensively use fiscal, taxation, and industrial policies, and introduce necessary stimulus measures to reverse the continuous decline in growth rate. On the other hand, we must use the downward trend of economic downturn. Promote structural transformation and upgrading, and explore an industrial development path that is coordinated with the “steady growth†and “adjustment structureâ€. 1. Vigorously support small and medium-sized enterprises and promote the development of the private economy. SMEs are the key to the development of the industrial economy. Broadening investment channels for SMEs plays an important role in promoting industrial economic development. “New Non-public 36†provides policy guarantee for private capital to enter monopoly industries. At this stage, the key point is to implement various policies, timely track implementation and effects, and make “glass doors†become green channels and even special channels, thus truly To achieve the original intention of the policy to encourage private investment, and promote the upgrading and adjustment of the industrial structure. 2. Reasonable tax reduction, and effectively reduce the burden on enterprises. One of the measures to alleviate the burden on SMEs is to reduce the corporate tax burden. Only by reducing the corporate tax burden can we truly expand the domestic demand. Corporate tax burden is too heavy, directly affecting the company's investment and reproduction. At the specific operational level of the policy, under the same conditions, priority should be given to applications for SMEs to pay social insurance premiums, social insurance subsidies, job subsidies and on-the-job training subsidies. In addition, the experience of business tax to value-added tax should be carefully summarized to avoid double taxation. In the two links of production and circulation, we will effectively reduce the burden on enterprises. In addition to tax reductions, relevant administrative fees for enterprises involved should be reduced or exempted, cleaned up and rectified, and regulated administrative fees for enterprises, while simplifying the examination and approval procedures and increasing implementation. 3. Expand government investment and procurement to form a virtuous cycle mechanism. Strengthen fiscal expenditure management and expand government procurement. Government investment and procurement are conducive to stimulating domestic demand and stimulating consumption. It is possible to promote the development of small and medium-sized enterprises through procurement activities, reduce the inventory of small and medium-sized enterprises, rationally increase social employment, guide independent innovation and industrial upgrading, and form a virtuous cycle mechanism. In the procurement process, SMEs should be given priority in order to make the government's procurement management serve the enterprise and serve the economic development. 4. Accelerate industrial restructuring and achieve sustainable industrial development. The fundamental measure to achieve sustainable industrial development is to accelerate the adjustment of industrial structure and accelerate the adjustment of industrial structure. The key is to shift from external demand to domestic demand, eliminate backward production capacity, actively develop emerging strategic industries, promote the transformation and upgrading of industrial enterprises, and form innovation and A new model for the growth of industrial enterprises driven by scientific and technological progress. At the same time, we will consider the coordinated development of processing trade and regional economy and promote the transfer of processing trade to the central and western regions. In terms of the factor input structure, we will strive to form an industrial cluster and give full play to the driving role of the cluster industry. 5. Improve infrastructure in the central and western regions and create new industrial clusters. Accelerate the urbanization process in the central and western regions, start and promote a number of key transportation and energy projects that have a great effect on regional economic development and social benefits, and strive to achieve comprehensive improvement of infrastructure in the central and western regions during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. Eliminate the constraints of infrastructure on economic and social development; support the strategic shift of manufacturing to the central and western regions, select key central cities, promote the construction of industrial agglomerations, open up the upstream and downstream industrial chains, and enhance the industrial supporting capacity of the central and western regions.
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