Since the US, Europe and the United States prosecuted China's restrictions on rare earth exports in March, it is disturbing how much things have developed. On July 24, the WTO announced that it has established an expert group to investigate, review and decide on China's restrictions on export management measures for rare earths, tungsten and molybdenum. The Chinese government said it would respect the findings of the World Trade Organization, but will continue to tighten regulation of the rare earth industry. In August, the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China issued a second batch of rare earth export quotas of 9770 tons to qualified enterprises in 2012, bringing the rare earth export quota to 30,996 tons this year. On August 31, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said in a forum hosted by visiting German Chancellor Merkel about the issue of rare earth exports. It is not China’s intention to restrict rare earth exports. China's rare earth supply is as high as 80% in the world market, and the proportion is still high. At the same time, there are many problems in the mining of rare earths in China, especially in the south. Many of them are mined on site, soaked with acid on the spot. If it continues, the ecology will be difficult to sustain. Wen Jiabao said: "I agree that Sino-German cooperation on the entire chain of mining, development, utilization and high-tech use of rare earths is much better than trade prosecution."
In fact, the Western countries’ containment of China’s rare earths is not limited to trade prosecutions. The United States, Europe and Japan are studying rare earth substitutes, which has seriously challenged the monopoly of China’s rare earths; coupled with the disorderly development of China’s rare earth industry itself. Competition has led to a large sale of exports at the price of “cabbageâ€. China's rare earths can be described as difficult. The saying that “there is oil in the Middle East and rare earth in China†has made Chinese people with rich rare earth resources proud. But nowadays, some of the oil-producing countries in the Middle East have already earned a lot of money. China, which accounts for more than 90% of the world's rare earth supply, has to endure the reality of the sale of rare earths for a long time. People can't help but ask, where is the way out for Chinese rare earths?
Alternative technology challenges China's monopoly
It is reported that China's control over rare earth exports has prompted Japan and other countries to invest a large amount of funds and research and development teams to accelerate the pace of research and development of rare earth replacement technologies. According to Japanese media reports, Yamada Fung, a special associate professor at Chiba University in Japan, and the joint research team led by Japan, Germany and France have successfully developed the world's finest high-performance magnetic organic molecules. It is reported that the organic molecules developed are only one nanometer (one billionth of a meter), but the sensitivity is more than 10 times that of previous organic molecules. This technology can reduce the cost of computer materials and promote further miniaturization and high performance of computers. The technical results have been published in the well-known "NatureNanotechnology" magazine, the next task is to apply this organic molecule to the production of solar cells and displays to replace rare earth elements.
As early as March, Japan reached consensus with officials from the United States and the European Union on promoting research and development cooperation on the reuse of rare earths and alternatives. Japan’s economy and industry, Yoko Nobuo, pointed out at the meeting that rare earth is an indispensable raw material for high-tech products. He stressed: "Through the technical cooperation between Japan, the United States and Europe, it is possible to build a supply chain that does not depend on specific national resources." Zhiye said that wind power equipment also needs rare earths, saying that "it is impossible to use renewable energy because of high resource prices and lack of access." ". US Energy Secretary Zhu Xiwen said: "It is important to reduce dependence" and said that the United States is working on the development of magnets with less rare earths. EU officials said they would buy rare earths from Africa and other places, and suggested adopting a design that would allow for future re-extraction of rare earths for reuse in the product development phase.
At the same time, in order to reduce risks, some countries are also actively promoting the development of rare earth-free products, such as Toyota to develop rare-earth-free electric motors, and Japanese university professors have created rare earth-free vehicles. In the face of the reduction and price increase of China's rare earth exports, countries are still restarting and developing rare earth projects, such as the Mount Pace rare earth mine in California, which has been sealed for many years, and restarted production in 2011. How does China's rare earth industry break through? Finding countermeasures also needs to start from the analysis of the status quo.
Zhou Chengxiong, deputy director of the Center for Strategic Questions and Research of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, believes that the issue of rare earths has been raging in the country for a long time. A considerable number of people are complacent about China's constraints on Western countries' resources and are immersed in the dream of dominating the world's rare earth market. But the reality is that people who have left our rare earth can live. In fact, although China's rare earth supply is in a monopoly position, it is a sad monopoly. It is not the same as Microsoft's monopoly of the operating system market, the three major mines monopolizing iron ore, and OPEC monopoly oil. Our monopoly of rare earth supply does not come from the monopoly of resources, nor from the monopoly of technology, but on the low cost advantage of neglecting the environmental cost and neglecting the formation of labor security. The monopoly of rare earth supply is actually the monopoly of low-cost rare earth. Just like a person who doesn't have a lot of flour at home, relying on free to send gimmicks to everyone, so that other restaurants are closed, they feel good about themselves, ignoring that others not only have flour but also hoes are better than themselves, thinking that others leave their own The girl will starve to death. Therefore, although we are likely to eventually lose our current monopoly position, it is a good thing to make our minds more clear-headed.
US and Europe rare earth quasi-monopoly
According to public information, in 2010, there were more than 120 mines and more than 100 enterprises in China, which distributed rare earths in nine provinces. Compared with the situation of China's rare earths, the rare earth enterprises in Europe and the United States are often the only ones. In the United States, there are only a handful of rare earth mining companies, and the largest Morley company has even a complete rare earth industry chain from mining to material manufacturing. Due to its large scale and concentrated strength, the US and Japan rare earth enterprises have long been in the high-end of the industrial chain, and they have mastered the core technologies and series of patents for producing rare earth functional products. Low-priced rare earth imports from China for storage and processing, and high-priced exports of rare earth products to China. These countries are also actively building rare earth reserves and developing new sources of rare earths, such as rare earths in Japan, and four of the nine overseas mineral projects in 2010 involved rare earths.
Energy expert Han Xiaoping told this reporter that Japan has already stocked enough rare earth resources. Even if China no longer exports rare earths or it can't buy it, there is no problem. The current reserves are enough to meet its use within 20 years. The Japanese have the idea that rare earth is a precious resource. Now that the dollar is depreciating day by day, instead of stocking a large amount of dollars, China should buy more rare earth reserves and prepare it for later use. In addition, with the development of our technology in the future, there may be more elements that can be utilized. So it stores some of the remaining rare earth scrap.
In the international arena, the game of war and the battle for rare earth resources have also intensified. Authoritative statistics show that the United States, with 13 million tons of rare earth reserves, ranks third, second only to China and Russia. However, due to the government's strategic considerations, the constraints of relevant laws and regulations, and the increased competitiveness of China's rare earth products, the US's rare earth production has almost come to a standstill in recent years. Since the 1990s, countries such as the United States have closed their mines and switched to China. Analysts believe that once China's rare earth resources are exhausted, it is necessary to buy rare earths from the United States and Japan. At that time, they may "sell" rare earth materials at a price of hundreds of times and thousands of times.
In recent years, Afghanistan has been confirmed to have a large number of rare earth deposits. Some people say that the war in Afghanistan is a rare earth war. The United States did not hate bin Laden but loved rare earths to fight Afghanistan. However, Ye Hailin, an expert on international issues at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, has raised the opposite view that this argument is relatively unfounded. The United States started its work in Afghanistan from "9.11" until 2005, and did not conduct any mineral exploration in Afghanistan. If the United States goes to Afghanistan to find natural resources in the name of counter-terrorism, it should soon launch an investigation into the mineral resources in the Afghan territory, but in fact the United States has not done so. This can also prove that the economic value of the United States against Afghanistan is not worthy of attention. On the contrary, the topic of US speculation on Afghan mineral resources is when the United States has decided to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan. Rather than being a motive for the US invasion of Afghanistan, it is better to say that Americans are playing a gimmick. They want to pull other countries into Afghanistan to clean up the mess for the Americans. In this regard, current affairs commentator Song Zhongping told this reporter that we would rather believe that there is no credibility. When the US military enters Afghanistan, it is impossible to face a barren land and no claims can be obtained. In Afghanistan, the first thing the United States needs is geopolitical interests, and the second is to control the vast resources it has. Americans don't make a loss-making business. It doesn't help it. It won't go to Afghanistan.
I urgently need to increase R&D to seize the commanding heights.
Some insiders said that if the benefits brought by the export of rare earths lead to domestic chaos, then exports should be banned to completely eradicate the cause of the disaster. But now it is only restricting exports, and even the symptoms can not be done. Song Zhongping believes that for the time being, it is unrealistic for us to completely ban the export of rare earths. China's rare earth resources account for only 30% of the world's total, but we have a 90% share of rare earth resources exports. Who is the problem? It is because China has done its own mistakes and spoiled the Western world. If we stop now and control all the rare earth resources to not export, it will create a great deal for the West. It believes that China is a very irresponsible country.
Zhao Wenzhao, a network observer, puts forward the view that there are many kinds of rare earths. We should formulate policies for each of them separately. For example, China's unique heavy rare earths must be strictly controlled. When Russia wants to restrict the export of natural gas, it is often said that it is maintenance equipment. We can also consider stopping production for several weeks every year to repair rare earth production equipment. This will not only serve to reduce exports, but will not be told to go to the WTO. Russia, a resource country, is experienced in how to play resource cards. We should follow a few strokes in China.
Zhou Chengxiong believes that after China's monopoly of rare earth supply, some rare earth producers ignore the long-term interests of the country and guide the country to introduce export quota system to obtain short-term profits, but have not taken any actions to truly enhance core competitiveness. In fact, when we were in the monopoly of rare earth supply, foreign rare earth mines lost market value, and we could have acquired them on a large scale to truly realize resource advantages. We can also encourage rare earth enterprises to increase R&D investment and seize the commanding heights of rare earth technology. Regrettably, the relevant industrial policies have not seized the opportunity to promote the competitiveness of the rare earth industry.
Therefore, when other countries have restarted rare earth mining, our policies must be changed, get rid of the old control and administrative control thinking, and stand in the position of national interests to promote the competitiveness of the rare earth industry. First, the export quota policy should be abandoned in due course. Abandoning the export quota policy can eliminate the administrative power rent-seeking, and substitute the export differential tax policy to guide the correct development direction of the rare earth industry. Secondly, increase the cost of rare earth mining, increase the implementation of relevant laws and regulations, and comprehensively improve the environmental and labor protection requirements, so that enterprises with low-cost and disorderly development cannot survive. Third, relying on tax guidance to improve the technical level of enterprises. The lack of motivation for technological innovation in enterprises is mainly because the innovation income is far less than the speculative income. Therefore, it is necessary to greatly increase the tax rate of rare earth primary products, so that enterprises can only rely on rare earth high-end products to develop profits, thereby eliminating low-level enterprises.
In short, the resumption of rare earth development in foreign countries to break the monopoly supply in China is beneficial to the development of China's rare earth industry, which helps us to have a clear understanding of ourselves and help us to understand the future development direction. China's rare earth policy has been adjusted to a critical period. We must face the new situation and make the right choices. We cannot miss the opportunity again and go astray.
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