The National Bureau of Statistics announced on the 27th that from January to August, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 305.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%. In August, the profit reached 381.2 billion yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year. This is the fifth consecutive month of negative growth in the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China. Considering that China's industrial enterprises are faced with various medium- and long-term adjustment pressures, experts believe that although the overall economic situation may improve in the second half of the year, the industrial operation may still be difficult even if it is next year, and may even continue to be worse than the overall economy. Data industry profits five consecutive declines According to the National Bureau of Statistics data, from January to August, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size fell by 3.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from January to July. In August, the profit achieved a year-on-year decrease of 6.2%, which was 0.8 percentage points deeper than that in July, the lowest in the year. From January to August, among industrial enterprises above designated size, state-owned and state-owned holding enterprises realized a profit of 883.9 billion yuan, down 12.7% year-on-year; collective enterprises realized profits of 48.5 billion yuan, up 7% year-on-year; joint-stock enterprises realized profits of 178.4 billion yuan, The decline was 1.9%; foreign-invested enterprises from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan achieved profits of 703.4 billion yuan, down 12.7% year-on-year; private enterprises realized profits of 945.4 billion yuan, up 15.1% year-on-year. Among the 41 major industrial sectors, 24 industries saw a year-on-year increase in profits, 16 industries fell year-on-year, and 1 industry turned from a profit to a loss in the same period. Profit growth of major industries: profit of agricultural and sideline food processing industry increased by 16.2% year-on-year, automobile manufacturing industry increased by 10.8%, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 1.4%, power, heat production and supply industry increased by 36.5%, oil and gas mining industry Decreased by 3.5%, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing fell by 20.2%, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry fell by 67.4%, general equipment manufacturing fell by 2%, computer, communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing fell by 2.9%, petroleum processing, The coking and nuclear fuel processing industry turned from a profit to a loss in the same period. “In August, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size continued to decline, and the decline was deepened from 5.4% in July to 6.2%. On the one hand, the decline in profits was attributed to weak demand, and the growth of corporate business income further weakened, which is related to the current economic cyclical Slow, especially the unexpected decline in external demand is consistent; on the other hand, corporate costs remain high, and due to weak demand, companies are unable to transfer costs to downstream consumers.†HSBC macroeconomic analyst Sun Junyi commented. Hu Chi, a researcher at the Research Institute of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, told the Economic Information Daily: "The decline in corporate profits is affected by the current economic downturn and slowdown in demand. But from a deeper perspective, it is more important that China's industrial enterprises still have not shaken off the tradition. The mode of speed economy has led to a decline in corporate profits that is worse than economic growth when economic growth rates are low. In recent years, the rise in labor costs and raw material prices has led to a significant increase in product costs. This has been particularly evident this year. The trend is facing medium- and long-term adjustments. For a long time, the manufacturing operation trend has remained basically the same as the overall economy. The market is accustomed to predicting the overall economy with the manufacturing situation. But from this year's economic data, the situation has changed. The proportion of service industries in some provinces and cities in the east has increased, and the impact of the tertiary industry on the regional economy has increased. For example, the year-on-year growth rate of Shanghai's economy in the first half of the year only ranks first among the provincial-level units in the country, but the contribution rate of the tertiary industry to the GDP has reached a new high in the same period of history. Yan Jun, chief economist of the Shanghai Municipal Bureau of Statistics, said that the Shanghai economy has stabilized and rebounded before the country. In addition, as the country continues to increase investment in agriculture, the contribution of agriculture to economic growth is also increasing. As of last year, China's grain production has been harvested for eight consecutive years, and this summer's summer grain continues to have a bumper harvest, with output hitting a record high. Sheng Laiyun, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, called agricultural production "the first prominent highlight of economic growth in the first half of the year." At present, the difficulties faced by China's industry are difficult to solve in the short term, and it is necessary to rely on the more painful adjustments in the medium and long term. The first is the issue of demand shift. Cao Yuanzheng, chief economist at Bank of China , said that China needs to shift from relying solely on external demand to expanding domestic demand. For manufacturing companies, orders from overseas and from domestic will face completely different requirements, and changes cannot be achieved overnight. Second, China's manufacturing industry is facing a more serious "two-head squeeze." Cai Zhizhou, deputy director of the Center for China's National Economic Accounting and Economic Growth Research at Peking University, told the Economic Information Daily that the current negative growth in industrial profits stems from rising costs. This round of price increases has obvious cost-driven characteristics. Cost-driven inflation will definitely lead to the simultaneous squeeze of both rising costs and reduced demand, so the decline in profits is inevitable. Moreover, since cost-driven inflation is difficult to eliminate in the short term, it is expected that industrial enterprises' profits will be at a low level in the future. Again, the industrial structure needs to be adjusted. Guo Jie, deputy dean of the School of Economics of Renmin University of China, said that due to China's special economic development track, China's industrial share has been relatively high, and in many cases it is in a state of overcapacity. The most direct way to solve this problem is to directly stimulate the idle productivity caused by insufficient demand through investment, and to drive the entire economy by stimulating the secondary industry. However, the essence of investment is to expand reproduction. Although the investment channel has solved the lack of structural demand in the short-term and stimulated the economy, in the long run, it has once again expanded the production capacity of the secondary industry, leaving a greater hidden danger for the structural demand shortage in subsequent economic growth. . Finally, technological innovation is insufficient. Guo Jie said that in 2011, the added value of China's above-scale high-tech manufacturing industry accounted for only 9.1% of the total industrial enterprises above designated size, and the added value of equipment manufacturing industry accounted for 28.9% of the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size, only 0.2 more than in 2005. percentage point. Countermeasure adjustment structure can not be neglected Looking into the future, the situation that the industry is worse than the overall economy will continue for a period of time. An example is that the current economic slowdown signs are obvious. Many institutions predict that the economy will see a rebound in the fourth quarter, but industrial data, whether it is the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI), the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size, or above the scale. The profits of industrial enterprises have all hit new lows during the year. Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomics Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, told the reporter of the Economic Information Daily that the economic growth rate next year is likely to remain stable, but the days of enterprises will be difficult, and there may be a comprehensive reshuffle. As an important part of the macro economy, poor industrial performance will inevitably affect the overall economic situation, especially in the current economic downturn pressure is still large, it may also have an impact on employment. “The continued contraction of corporate profits indicates that manufacturing companies face great difficulties. If short-term domestic demand cannot be effectively boosted to offset the impact of insufficient external demand, then this will have a negative impact on the employment needs of enterprises. The employment data itself is a lagging indicator. Recent data and reports indicate that the pressure on the labor market is increasing. For example, the employment sub-index in the HSBC manufacturing PMI has been in the contraction zone for seven consecutive months. This situation only occurred during the financial crisis.†Sun Junxi said. To solve the industrial downturn problem, although there may be no specific medicine, economists believe that if you can continue to do it in some aspects, it will still achieve good results. For example, Zhou Jingwei, a senior researcher in the Strategic Development Department of the Bank of China, put forward four suggestions: First, slow down the speed of comprehensive enterprise cost increase, and set aside time for enterprises to transform and upgrade and transfer between regions; second, policies should further promote enterprise transformation and upgrading; The third is to further increase the opening of private enterprises and small and micro enterprises; the fourth is to accelerate the development of the central and western regions. Advancing industrial restructuring is crucial. Recently, the China National Development and Reform Commission China Macroeconomics Association hosted the first China-level urban-level development and reform forum, Han Yongwen, deputy governor of the Hunan Provincial People's Government, Li Pumin, secretary general of the National Development and Reform Commission, Liu Sushe, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, and vice chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission. Director Gao Wei, Bank of China Chief Economist Cao Yuanzheng, Vice President and Secretary General of China Macroeconomics Association Wang Jian attended the meeting. Participants suggested that it is necessary to “unswervingly adjust the structure to change the way.†In the process, first of all, there is a big change in the concept of the central leadership and localities, and we must consider the issue from the perspective of past supply and turn more from Consider the issue from the perspective of demand. The second is to actively increase innovation, on the one hand, to increase support for strategic emerging industries, on the other hand, to increase technological innovation in the industry, and to continuously improve the quality of industrial competitiveness and economic growth through high technology.
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