Domestic copper futures once again staged an oscillating market. On Friday, the domestic copper market traded lightly. The copper price oscillated in a narrow range. The closing price did not change much. The positions decreased by tens of thousands to 518,000 hands, and the trading volume was only 470,000 hands. On the same day, the trading in the copper market was light, but in the A-share market, it still challenged the resistance level, that is, the position of the gap of 58,000 yuan in the previous gap. Copper market adjustment is still not over From the current point of view, although the copper market has the inertia of the upside, Jinrui Futures said that the copper market adjustment has not yet ended. Jinrui Futures said that, first of all, China’s economic slowdown exceeded expectations and a fatal blow to the price of non-ferrous metals that were originally resistant to decline. The consumption of copper, aluminum and lead and zinc in China is basically more than 40% of the world. Data show that China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 8.1% in the first quarter, down from 8.9% in the fourth quarter of last year and also below the estimated 8.3%. Among them, fixed asset investment growth decreased by 2.9 percentage points year-on-year, driving real estate investment growth by 10.6 percentage points year-on-year; housing construction area reflecting real estate boom was down 23.1 percentage points year-on-year; national commercial housing sales fell by 27.3 percentage points year-on-year; It grew by 7.1% and is also at a historically low level. At the end of March, M2 increased by 13.4%, down 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, indicating that currency supply continued to tighten. At present, compared with the end of 2008, the government's attitude toward economic adjustment is more clear. Premier Wen’s remarks on economic growth of 7.5% set the tone for this round of adjustment, and real estate prices continued to decline steadily. Second, although the policy has been partially fine-tuned, it is completely different from the end of 2008. Last weekend, China expanded the spot exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar, and the RMB moved further toward internationalization. However, in the context that the RMB exchange rate may be close to equilibrium, this will facilitate more hot money to withdraw from China. Goldman Sachs sold $2.5 billion in ICBC shares, or a signal that hot money left the market. The Chinese economy is undergoing a major level of adjustment to the bubble. Jinrui Futures said that industry data from the first quarter showed that copper downstream consumption was weak. Automobile production was flat with last year, retail sales of automotive products fell by 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, and household appliances growth fell by 19.9 percentage points year-on-year. At the same time, the output of 10 non-ferrous metals in the first quarter increased by 5.8%, and the supply was sufficient. The copper stocks in the previous period began to increase. Copper domestic and foreign prices continued to be sluggish, imported copper was still in a state of loss, and copper entrepot trade increased. Downstream consumption is not good, domestic smelters restart the processing trade. There are increasing signs that copper downstream consumption continues to be weak. The overseas situation is still unclear. The overseas situation is still unclear and is also an important factor in the performance of the copper. The United States, the world's largest economy with a relatively good recovery since the third quarter of last year, has weakened its economic recovery momentum. US industrial output rose by zero in March, the same as in February, and was expected to increase by 0.3%, reflecting industrial growth stagnation; US housing starts fell by 5.8% in March, the second consecutive month of decline, seasonally adjusted 2012 In March, the annual sales of new homes in the United States totaled 654,000, much lower than the previous forecast of 705,000. The European debt crisis has been twisted and twisted. This time Spain replaced Greece as the focus of the crisis. Data released last Friday showed that Spain borrowed 316.3 billion euros from the European Central Bank in March. The market worried that many of the funds borrowed by the bank were invested in domestic bonds. The 10-year bond yield climbed to 6.1%; the Spanish CDS rose to more than 520 points. A record high. Although the market response to a batch of short-term government bonds issued by Spain on the 17th was better than expected, the risk of the spread of the debt crisis has not been ruled out. Data show that in February this year, the Bank of Spain's bad debt rate was as high as 8.2%, the highest level since October 1994. In addition, the Italian government draft document shows that the Italian government has significantly lowered its economic growth forecast and lowered its growth forecast this year from -0.4% to -1.2%, and said it will not be able to meet the 2012 deficit target. The Portuguese government, which has received external assistance, said that the country cannot guarantee a return to capital market financing by September 2013. In order to allow the economy to recover as soon as possible, the recent emerging economies have cut interest rates, but it is clear that liquidity is only effective in China, it is difficult to form spillovers, and it is difficult to raise international metal prices. In Europe and the United States, due to insufficient endogenous power, slow economic recovery and weak demand, it is difficult to form support for international metal prices. Jinrui Futures said that the main risk of the current round of copper price decline is the US QE3. The Fed's current attitude toward the launch of QE3 is still ambiguous. It does not rule out the Fed's launch of QE3 with the turmoil in the US economy. By then, the current round of copper decline will be reversed. In addition, as China is likely to cut the deposit reserve ratio in the second quarter, and with the decline in copper prices, downstream copper companies may make up the inventory, so the copper price decline will repeat.
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