In May, the Electricity Regulatory Commission reported a steady increase in electricity consumption over ten-day periods. The National Bureau of Statistics also released China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for May at 50.8%, marking a 0.2% rise from the previous month. Despite this positive sign, the maintenance of the Daqin Line failed to meet coal demand, which contributed to a downward trend in coal prices. As both demand and costs move in a favorable direction, power companies may see better-than-expected performance this year.
According to provincial electricity consumption data from the Electricity Regulatory Commission, the average daily electricity consumption in May was 12.71 billion kWh. When accounting for the May Day holiday, the adjusted average daily consumption rose to 12.91 billion kWh. Specific figures show that the average daily consumption ranged between 12.19 and 13.06 billion kWh. Excluding early May data, the ten-day average has shown a consistent upward trend since the start of the second quarter.
By combining average daily consumption with the number of days and factoring in the May Day holiday, along with statistical calibration, it is estimated that national electricity consumption in May reached around 430 billion kWh—a year-on-year increase of 5.9%. This marks a significant improvement compared to the 4.9% growth rate in January–April, indicating a gradual economic recovery and expanding downstream electricity demand. The May data from the National Bureau of Statistics supports this trend.
Coal accounts for approximately 70% of the cost in the thermal power industry. Over the past year, coal prices have declined significantly, leading to improved profitability for thermal power plants. In the first half of 2012, the average price of Bohai Thermal Coal was 774 yuan per ton, but by May 2013, it had dropped to 610 yuan per ton. The average price in the first half of 2013 was 620 yuan per ton, a 20% decrease compared to the same period in 2012. Considering transportation and long-term coal contracts, some coal-fired power plants saw a 16% year-on-year drop in costs, with gross profit margins exceeding 20%—an increase of 8%–10% compared to the previous year.
The improved profits of thermal power companies are reflected in both annual and quarterly reports this year, with high growth expected in the mid-year report. Guodian Power forecasted a more than 50% increase in its mid-year performance in its quarterly report. Huadian International noted in its report that falling thermal coal prices would lead to a significant year-on-year increase in interim net profit. Similarly, Huadian Energy predicted a profitable interim report, with net profit attributable to the parent company reaching 107 million yuan in the first quarter of this year—up from 194 million yuan in the same period in 2012.
During the April overhaul of the Daqin Line, coal prices did not follow the expected downward trend. After the maintenance period, the inventory at Qinhuangdao quickly increased from 4.96 million tons to 6.36 million tons within a month, suggesting that the coal supply and demand remained relatively loose. With limited rebound potential, thermal power gross profit margins are expected to remain high. Given that the impact of the Daqin Line overhaul on coal prices was less than anticipated, the mid-year reports of thermal power companies may also slightly exceed expectations.
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