In the past two days, Tesla, the rising star of the new energy vehicle industry, faced a sharp drop. It first plummeted by 14% on the previous day and then surged by 10.27% the next day, closing at $120.25. Research firm Dougherty has dramatically raised its target price for Tesla from $90 to $200, even suggesting that its stock could potentially reach $300 under optimal conditions.
Domestically, companies involved in new energy vehicles have shown strong performance this year. BYD leads the market, closely following in Tesla's footsteps. However, after the initial hype around new energy vehicles, the domestic market remains largely untapped.
The call for building more charging stations is growing louder. Without a proper "gas station" infrastructure, the new energy vehicle market can only remain in the conceptual stage.
Looking at Tesla’s progress: On May 29, Tesla announced plans to build a network of supercharging stations across the U.S., which helped push its stock price above $100 for the first time.
Following Tesla’s lead, China needs a similar plan to establish a nationwide supercharging network.
According to estimates from CCID and other research institutions, the development of new energy vehicle charging equipment will accelerate significantly over the next three years, with the number of new charging stations doubling each year. Industry suppliers predict that the scale of new energy vehicle charging infrastructure will reach 7 billion yuan within the next 3-5 years. It is expected that between 2013 and 2017, the number of newly built B/O stations will double annually.
The beginning is always tough. Under the scorching sun, reporters from the Shanghai Daily found that even in the earliest pilot projects for new energy vehicles in Shanghai, public charging facilities are still limited and located in remote areas. This makes it difficult to meet the daily driving needs of electric vehicles, keeping their development stuck in the conceptual phase.
This situation may soon change. On July 12, the State Council meeting emphasized the need for government official vehicles and buses to lead the adoption of new energy vehicles, shifting the focus from private cars to public transportation. Industry experts believe this new approach will better support the foundational development of charging infrastructure.
Charging infrastructure is slowly becoming a bottleneck in the development of new energy vehicles. The State Council meeting on July 12 reiterated the need to strengthen the promotion of new energy vehicles.
Over the past few years, despite frequent policy support from the central and local governments, new energy vehicles have not yet gained widespread market recognition. According to Qian Minghua, Director of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, new energy vehicle production and sales reached 16,381 units in the first half of this year, showing rapid growth. However, compared to the goal set in the "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Development Plan" to reach 500,000 units by 2015, there is still a significant gap.
An industry insider noted that the lack of charging infrastructure is the biggest obstacle to the slow development of new energy vehicles.
Recently, a reporter from the Shanghai Daily visited the first new energy vehicle charging demonstration station in Shanghai, located at No. 88 Huashi Road. This is the only urban charging station in Shanghai that offers both charging and battery swap services. However, the aluminum alloy gate was closed, and the facility was not open to the public. There were four temporary chargers on the sidewalk nearby, which were reportedly used for private electric vehicles during the 2010 acceptance period.
The reporter observed an IC card slot and charging module on the machine, but the staff confirmed that the equipment had been idle for several years, with no vehicles being charged. Although a charging station in Jinshan, Shanghai, is open to the public, there are very few new energy vehicles, and the facility has been underutilized for a long time.
According to the Shanghai Electric Power Company, there are currently 16 new energy vehicle charging stations in Shanghai, but most are used for buses and construction vehicles, and are not accessible to the general public.
Mr. Ding, who once planned to purchase a Roewe E50 pure electric vehicle, mentioned that according to the relevant policies, he could enjoy a government subsidy of nearly 100,000 yuan, saving 70-80,000 yuan in license fees compared to traditional cars. However, he later learned that installing a personal charging pile requires coordination with power companies and approval from residential property management, which is extremely difficult. Additionally, there are no public battery swap stations available in Shanghai.
Similar situations have also occurred in Beijing, Wuhan, and other cities.
Tesla's success has sparked a turning point in the industry. Domestic new energy vehicle technology is not far behind Tesla, and its success can be replicated with proper policy support.
In May, Tesla’s performance in the U.S. demonstrated substantial breakthroughs in battery management technology. In the first quarter, it sold a record 4,750 units, with the Model S achieving a maximum range of 480 kilometers, matching luxury cars like Mercedes-Benz and BMW.
Additionally, Tesla announced plans to build a supercharging network across the U.S., helping its stock price exceed $100 for the first time. By the end of the year, these supercharging stations are expected to cover most urban areas in the U.S. and southern Canada, allowing Tesla owners to drive long distances without range anxiety.
The company’s founder also announced the release of the third-generation model, aiming to bring the price down to a level that is more accessible to the general public.
"It can be said that Tesla’s success marks a turning point in the entire new energy vehicle industry," said a senior automotive commentator. He added that while there isn’t much difference between domestic new energy vehicle technology and Tesla, the country has the potential to replicate its success under supportive policies.
Wang Chuanfu, CEO of BYD, one of China’s leading new energy vehicle manufacturers, is also impressed. “If household consumption starts, BYD’s ‘minutes’ can create ‘Tesla’,†he said. He emphasized that while pure electric vehicle technology is not a problem for BYD, the market is the real challenge. Expanding production capacity would take about four to five years.
Tesla supports at least three charging modes. Its supercharging stations use high-voltage fast-charging technology, allowing a 30-minute charge to provide enough power for about three hours of driving. Battery swapping technology allows a full battery replacement in about 90 seconds, faster than refueling. Owners can also use portable chargers for home use. Tesla seems to be focusing more on charging technology, aiming to make charging as fast as refueling in the future.
As an early player in the charging equipment segment, Hangzhou Zhongheng Electric has developed chargers compatible with Tesla vehicles, capable of delivering higher charging currents. China’s power supply technology is world-leading, and Chinese manufacturers can produce similar products at lower costs.
The company claims that its products can currently and in the future provide super-fast charging systems for Tesla electric vehicles without any modifications.
New energy vehicle promotion models are entering a new phase. The Chinese electric vehicle market should follow a path of “first government, then group, and finally private.†Local governments are starting to respond to this model.
The government has strongly encouraged the use of energy-efficient products and changed the promotion model for new energy vehicles, which could become a new driving force. The State Council meeting on July 12 called for accelerating the development of energy-saving and environmental protection industries and encouraging social capital participation, including private investment. Government vehicles and buses should take the lead in adopting new energy vehicles and improve supporting facilities. By 2015, the market share of energy-efficient products is expected to exceed 50%.
The capital market has responded directly to the support policies for new energy vehicles. On the first trading day after the meeting, the automobile sector was filled with red. Leading new energy vehicle companies such as Yutong Bus, Foton Motor, and BYD all closed higher in both A-share and H-share markets.
Industry researchers stated that Beijing and Shanghai’s environmental protection agencies have confirmed that vehicle exhaust contributes 25% to PM2.5 pollution in the city. With oil prices fluctuating, from the perspective of air pollution control and economics, new energy vehicles will undoubtedly become a major force in energy-efficient products and receive more policy support.
Zhang Zhiyong, a veteran automotive commentator, said that the Chinese electric vehicle market should develop along the path of “first government, then group, and finally private.†The private car market faces many obstacles, such as charging facilities, technical doubts, and after-sales services. It needs to wait for the group market to reach a certain scale before proceeding.
“This time, the state encourages the use of official vehicles and buses to promote new energy vehicles first, helping charge equipment complete the first round of distribution in the region, laying the foundation for gradual promotion to group and home users,†industry sources said.
There are signs that local governments are responding to this model. Reporters learned that the Roewe E50 has recently become an official vehicle of the Shanghai Municipal Government. The 10 Rongwei E50s purchased by the government have been parked in the municipal parking lot, with charging piles installed.
Shenzhen recently announced that it will speed up the promotion of pure electric buses. It will add another 4,000 to the existing 3,000 pure electric buses, and increase pure electric taxis to 3,000. By 2015, about 8,000 buses in Beijing will be converted to pure electric or hybrid vehicles, accounting for 1/3 of the total. Around 10,000 official vehicles and taxis will be updated to pure electric or hybrid cars. In logistics, sanitation, postal services, and leasing, 2,000 vehicles will be electrified.
It is logical for the charging market to experience rapid growth. The market size of new energy vehicle charging equipment is expected to reach 7 billion yuan in the next three years.
“To develop new energy vehicles on a large scale, the construction of charging facilities must come first,†said a person in charge of the Shanghai Electric Power Company.
According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, as of the end of 2012, only 148 charging and replacement stations and 807 charging stations had been built in pilot cities for new energy vehicles.
Experts in electrical and electronic control told reporters that the charging methods for city buses, park tour buses, and garbage disposal vehicles are generally high-pressure fast-charged during the day and slow-charged at night. Taxis are suitable for low-voltage charging stations. In the future, the promotion of electric buses and taxis in a number of large and medium-sized cities across the country will quickly boost the markets for batteries, motors, and electronic controls.
According to a bus line that built two charging stations, each city is expected to build an average of 20 pure electric bus lines. Calculating the capacity of 40 large and medium-sized cities, it is estimated that the country will increase more than 1,500 high-pressure fast charging stations in the next three years. Each city needs about 100 low-voltage charging stations, so it is estimated that 4,000-5,000 stations will be needed. AC charging piles for private cars are expected to increase by around 400,000 in the next three years. The market size of new energy vehicle charging equipment is expected to reach 7 billion yuan in the next three years.
According to the analysis of the CCID Research Report, the new energy vehicle charging market experienced a substantial recovery in 2013, and the scale growth rate has remained stable since 2014. In the construction of the charging station market, the major builders in the future will still be the State Grid, China Southern Power Grid, and Shanghai Putian. It is expected that by 2013-2017, the number of newly-built B/O stations will double annually.
At the time of writing, the 5th China (Shanghai) International Battery Products and Technology Exhibition, jointly sponsored by the China Battery Industry Association, the China Electronics Association, and the Guangdong Provincial Power Supply Association, will be held from August 20-22 in Shanghai. Experts from ministries and commissions will present the latest policy trends in the field of charging and batteries, and explore the research and development achievements of new technologies and processes in the industry.
It is logical for the charging market to usher in rapid growth.
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