In the past two days, Tesla, the rising star in the new energy vehicle industry, has faced significant volatility. It first dropped by 14% on the previous day and then surged by 10.27% the next day, closing at $120.25. Research firm Dougherty recently raised its target price for Tesla from $90 to $200, even suggesting that the stock could potentially reach $300 under optimal conditions.
Domestically, companies involved in the new energy vehicle sector have shown strong performance this year. BYD leads the market and is rapidly catching up with Tesla in terms of growth. However, despite the enthusiasm surrounding new energy vehicles, the domestic market remains largely untapped.
The call for more charging stations is growing louder. Without a proper "gas station" infrastructure, the electric vehicle market can only remain in the conceptual stage.
Looking at Tesla's progress: On May 29th, the company announced plans to build a network of supercharging stations across the U.S., which helped push its stock price above $100 for the first time.
Following in Tesla’s footsteps, China needs its own plan to develop a nationwide supercharging network.
According to estimates by CCID and other institutions, the development of new energy vehicle charging equipment will accelerate significantly over the next three years, with the number of new charging stations doubling annually. Suppliers predict that within the next 3-5 years, the scale of new energy vehicle charging infrastructure will reach 7 billion yuan. By 2013-2017, the number of newly built B/O stations is expected to double each year.
The beginning is always tough. Under the summer sun, a reporter from the Shanghai Daily found that even in the earliest pilot projects for new energy vehicles in Shanghai, public charging facilities are still sparse and located in inconvenient areas. This makes it difficult to meet the daily driving needs of electric vehicles, keeping their development stuck in the conceptual phase.
This situation may change soon. On July 12, the State Council executive meeting emphasized the need to lead the promotion of new energy vehicles through government and public transport, shifting from the previous focus on private cars. Industry experts believe this new approach will better support the foundational layout of charging infrastructure.
Development Status
Charging infrastructure is slowly becoming a bottleneck. Many factors affect the slow growth of new energy vehicles, but the lack of charging facilities is the most critical issue.
At the July 12 State Council meeting, the need to strengthen the promotion of new energy vehicles was once again highlighted. Although new energy vehicles have benefited from numerous policy incentives over the years, they have not yet gained widespread market acceptance.
According to Qian Minghua, Director of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, new energy vehicle production and sales reached 16,381 units in the first half of this year, showing a rapid growth trend. However, compared to the goal set in the “Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Development Plan†for 2015—aiming to reach 500,000 units in cumulative production and sales—there is still a large gap.
An industry insider stated that the biggest obstacle to the development of new energy vehicles is the lack of charging infrastructure.
Recently, a Shanghai Daily reporter visited the first new energy vehicle charging demonstration station in Shanghai, located at No. 88 Huashi Road. This is the only urban charging station with both charging and battery swap functions. However, the gate was closed, and it was not open to the public. There were four temporary chargers on the sidewalk nearby, but they had been idle for years.
Inside the station, the IC card slot and charging module were visible, but the staff said that no vehicles used the device regularly, and the equipment had been unused for several years. While a charging station in Jinshan, Shanghai, is open to the public, there are very few new energy vehicles using it, and it has remained underutilized for a long time.
According to the Shanghai Electric Power Company, there are currently 16 new energy vehicle charging stations in Shanghai, but most are used for buses and construction vehicles and are not available to the general public.
Mr. Ding, who once planned to buy a Roewe E50 electric car, told the reporter that he could enjoy a government subsidy of nearly 100,000 yuan and save 70,000 to 80,000 yuan in license fees. However, he later learned that installing a personal charging pile requires coordination with the power company and approval from the property management, which is extremely difficult. Additionally, there are no public battery swap stations available in Shanghai.
Similar situations have also occurred in Beijing, Wuhan, and other cities.
Industry Turning Point
The Tesla effect is creating a turning point in the industry. There is not much difference between domestic new energy vehicle technology and Tesla, and with policy support, Tesla’s success can be fully replicated.
In May, Tesla’s performance in the U.S. demonstrated a breakthrough in battery management technology. In the first quarter, it sold a record 4,750 units, with the Model S achieving a maximum range of 480 kilometers. Its performance metrics are on par with luxury brands like Mercedes-Benz and BMW.
Additionally, on May 29, Tesla announced plans to build a supercharging network across the U.S., which helped push its stock price above $100 for the first time.
According to Tesla’s plan, by the end of this year, its supercharging stations will cover most urban areas in the U.S. and southern Canada. Theoretically, Tesla owners could drive from the West Coast to the East Coast without worrying about range.
The company’s founder also announced the upcoming release of the third-generation model, which will bring the price down to a level accessible to the general public.
“It can be said that Tesla’s success marks a turning point in the development of the entire new energy vehicle industry,†a senior automotive commentator told the Shanghai Daily. He added that while there is little difference between domestic new energy vehicle technology and Tesla, the country has the ability to replicate Tesla’s success with the right policies.
Wang Chuanfu, CEO of BYD, one of China’s most well-known new energy vehicle manufacturers, is also optimistic. “If household consumption takes off, BYD’s ‘minutes’ can create a ‘Tesla’,†he said. Wang noted that pure electric vehicle technology is not an issue for BYD, but the market is. Expanding production capacity would take four or five years of investment.
Currently, Tesla supports at least three charging modes. Its supercharging stations use high-voltage fast-charging technology, allowing a 30-minute charge to provide enough power for about three hours of driving. Battery swapping technology enables a full battery replacement in around 90 seconds, faster than refueling. Owners can also use portable chargers for convenience. Tesla seems to be focusing more on charging technology, aiming to make charging as fast as traditional fueling.
As an early player in the charging equipment segment for new energy vehicles, Hangzhou Zhongheng Electric’s representative told the Shanghai Daily that the main feature of their charger compatible with Tesla electric vehicles is increased charging current. China’s power supply technology is among the best globally, and the same motor can be made more efficiently and at a lower cost than in foreign countries.
The representative also stated that based on the performance parameters of the Tesla battery pack, Zhongheng Electric’s products can provide super-fast charging systems for Tesla electric cars now and in the future without any modifications.
Model Innovation
New energy vehicle promotion models are evolving into a new driving force.
The Chinese electric vehicle market should follow the path of “first government, then group, and finally private.†There are signs that local governments are starting to respond to this model.
Recently, the government has strongly encouraged the use of energy-efficient products and changed the promotion model for new energy vehicles. This could become a new driving force.
At the July 12 State Council meeting, it was called for “accelerating the development of energy-saving and environmental protection industries†and encouraging active participation from social capital, including private capital. Government official vehicles and buses should take the lead in promoting new energy vehicles and improve supporting facilities. By 2015, the market share of energy-efficient products is expected to exceed 50%.
The capital market has given the most direct response to the support policies for new energy vehicles. On the first trading day after the meeting, the auto sector was filled with red, indicating gains. Leading new energy vehicle companies such as Yutong Bus, Foton Motor, and BYD all closed higher in both A-share and H-share markets.
Automotive industry researchers noted that environmental agencies in Beijing and Shanghai confirmed that automobile exhaust pollution accounts for 25% of PM2.5 pollutants in the city. With oil prices fluctuating, from the perspective of air pollution prevention and economics, new energy vehicles will undoubtedly become a major force in energy-efficient products and receive more policy support.
According to veteran automotive commentator Zhang Zhiyong, the Chinese electric vehicle market should follow the path of “first government, then group, and finally private.†The private car market faces many obstacles such as charging facilities, technical doubts, and after-sales services. It needs to wait until the group market reaches a certain scale before proceeding.
“This time, the state encourages the use of official vehicles and buses to promote new energy vehicles first, helping to complete the initial distribution of charging facilities in the region, laying the foundation for the gradual promotion of new energy vehicles to group and home users,†industry sources said.
There are indications that local governments have begun to respond to this model.
The reporter learned from relevant sources that the Roewe E50 has recently become one of the official vehicles of the Shanghai Municipal Government. The 10 Rongwei E50s purchased by the Shanghai municipal government are parked in the parking lot of the Shanghai Municipal Government, with the corresponding charging piles already installed.
Shenzhen recently announced that it will speed up the promotion of pure electric buses in its public transportation system. It will add another 4,000 to the existing 3,000 pure electric buses, while pure electric taxis will increase to 3,000. By 2015, about 8,000 buses in Beijing will be converted to pure electric or hybrid vehicles, accounting for one-third of the total bus fleet. Around 10,000 official vehicles and taxis will be updated to pure electric or hybrid cars. In logistics, environmental sanitation, postal services, and leasing, 2,000 vehicles will be electrified.
Optimistic Outlook
The charging equipment market will exceed 7 billion yuan in the next three years.
It makes sense for the charging market to experience rapid growth. The market size of new energy vehicle charging equipment is expected to reach 7 billion yuan in the next three years.
“The development of new energy vehicles on a large scale must be preceded by the construction of charging facilities,†said a person in charge of the Shanghai Electric Power Company.
According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, as of the end of 2012, there were only 148 charging and replacement stations and 807 charging stations built in pilot cities for new energy vehicles.
Experts in electrical and electronic control told reporters that the charging methods for city buses, park tour buses, and garbage disposal vehicles are generally high-pressure fast-charged during the day and slow-charged at night. Taxis are suitable for low-voltage charging stations. In the future, the promotion of electric buses and taxis in a number of large and medium-sized cities across the country will quickly boost the markets for batteries, motors, and electronic controls.
According to one bus line built with two charging stations, if each city builds an average of 20 pure electric bus lines, and considering the capacity of 40 large and medium-sized cities in the country, it is estimated that the country will add more than 1,500 high-pressure fast charging stations in the next three years. According to each city needing about 100 low-voltage charging stations, it is estimated that 4,000–5,000 stations will be needed. AC charging piles for private cars are expected to increase by around 400,000 in the next three years. The market size of new energy vehicle charging equipment in the next three years is expected to reach 7 billion yuan.
According to the analysis of the CCID Research Report, the scale of the new energy vehicle charging market experienced a substantial recovery in 2013, and the scale growth rate has been stable since 2014. In the construction of the charging station market, the major builders in the future will still be the State Grid, China Southern Power Grid, and Shanghai Putian. It is expected that by 2013-2017, the number of newly-built B/O stations will double every year.
The reporter was informed at the time of writing that the 5th China (Shanghai) International Battery Products and Technology Exhibition, jointly sponsored by the China Battery Industry Association, the China Electronics Association, and the Guangdong Provincial Power Supply Association, will be held from August 20 to 22 in Shanghai. Experts from ministries and commissions will present the latest policy trends in the field of charging and batteries, and explore the research and development achievements of new technologies and processes in the industry.
It is logical for the charging market to usher in rapid growth.
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